Bar Harbor Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BHB Stock | USD 31.49 0.32 1.03% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.01 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.865 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.565 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.775 | Wall Street Target Price 36.5 |
Hype-based context for Bar Harbor Bankshares compares attention patterns with recent price movement. Options positioning and short interest provide sentiment context for Bar Harbor in this view.
Bar Harbor Short Interest Pattern
Tracking Bar Harbor's short interest over time reveals how the bearish community views Bar's prospects. A steady increase often reflects deteriorating fundamental sentiment.
200 Day MA 31.2291 | Short Percent 0.0118 | Short Ratio 2.87 | Shares Short Prior Month 178 K | 50 Day MA 33.155 |
Bar Relative Strength
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bar Harbor Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 31.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.91.Hype vs Price Context - Bar Harbor Bankshares
The collective mood of investors toward Bar Harbor Bankshares is heavily influenced by public news flow. Monitoring Bar Harbor's sentiment trend allows investors to anticipate crowd-driven price dislocations.
Savvy investors use Bar Harbor's sentiment data as a positioning signal. When consensus is overwhelmingly positive, the risk of a sentiment-driven sell-off increases.
Bar Harbor Implied Volatility | 1.23 |
Bar Harbor's implied volatility rises when investors are uncertain about Bar Harbor Bankshares's future direction - particularly around earnings announcements or regulatory events. It typically falls as uncertainty resolves.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bar Harbor Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 31.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.91.Bar Harbor after-hype prediction price | $ 31.58 |
The sentiment summary complements forecasting and technical views with analyst estimates and earnings data.
Cross-verify projections for Bar Harbor using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bar Harbor. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 Summary for current Bar contract
Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-04-17 options is about 7.69%. This estimate is a volatility reference; at $ 31.49, it implies a move of about $ 2.42 per day.
Open Interest - Bar Options (2026-04-17)
Contract participation on Bar Harbor options is reflected in open interest, which complements volatility context.
Bar Harbor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bar Harbor Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 31.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.34 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.91 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bar Harbor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bar Harbor | Bar Harbor Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Bar Harbor Bankshares uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bar Harbor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bar Harbor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.199 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0218 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4318 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0131 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.91 |
Experienced investors tracking Bar Harbor's watch for mean reversion setups: periods when price has deviated significantly from its long-run average, creating an asymmetric risk-reward profile for patient capital.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The after-hype price distribution for Bar Harbor reflects the range of predicted outcomes based on historical news impact analysis. The spread of Bar Harbor's distribution is a direct measure of the uncertainty inherent in any forward-looking price model.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The after-hype price boundaries for Bar Harbor are calculated from a database of Bar Harbor's historical headline events and subsequent daily price movements. Bar Harbor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.81 and 33.35, respectively. Investors should treat these as statistical reference points, not precise predictions for Bar Harbor.
Current Value
The next after-hype price estimate for Bar Harbor Bankshares is modeled on a 3 months horizon and is intended to show how price could normalize after sentiment pressure fades. The objective is to separate event-driven enthusiasm from a more stable price path once the market absorbs the catalyst.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bar Harbor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bar Harbor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bar Harbor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 9 Events | 7 Events | In 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
31.49 | 31.58 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
On the 16th of March 2026 Bar Harbor Bankshares is traded for 31.49. The company stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Bar is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bar Harbor is about 1100.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.50. About 57.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.98. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Bar Harbor Bankshares had its last dividend issued on the 20th of February 2026. The company completed a 3:2 stock split on 22nd of March 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 9 days. Cross-verify projections for Bar Harbor using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bar Harbor. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Peer hype analysis for Bar Harbor aggregates sentiment and news impact data from Bar Harbor's competitive set to identify sector-wide trends before they are fully reflected in Bar Harbor's own price.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AROW | Arrow Financial | -0.38 | 10 per month | 1.39 | 0.06 | 2.45 | -2.89 | 9.26 | |
| FMNB | Farmers National Banc | -0.18 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.06 | 1.99 | -2.67 | 11.09 | |
| NRIM | Northrim BanCorp | -0.08 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 4.16 | -4.50 | 20.99 | |
| MSBI | Midland States Bancorp | 0.02 | 11 per month | 1.76 | 0.07 | 2.87 | -3.18 | 11.46 | |
| TCBX | Third Coast Bancshares | 1.57 | 8 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 2.97 | -2.70 | 10.03 | |
| BWB | Bridgewater Bancshares | 0.04 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 2.67 | -3.41 | 9.97 | |
| ACNB | ACNB Corporation | 0.58 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 2.49 | -2.92 | 7.77 | |
| CBNK | Capital Bancorp | -0.24 | 7 per month | 1.58 | 0.04 | 2.46 | -2.74 | 8.94 | |
| PFIS | Peoples Fin | 0.66 | 9 per month | 1.74 | 0.09 | 2.69 | -2.53 | 8.79 | |
| ALRS | Alerus Financial Corp | -0.39 | 7 per month | 1.66 | 0.09 | 2.86 | -2.58 | 9.30 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bar Harbor
Investors evaluating Bar at any level of experience must contend with the challenge of understanding Bar Harbor's price movement. The presence of noise in Bar Stock price charts can significantly complicate investment decisions.Bar Harbor Related Equities
The following equities are related to Bar Harbor within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Bar Harbor against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bar Harbor Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Bar Harbor Bankshares, market strength indicators offer a quantitative way to evaluate how the stock behaves under varying market conditions. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify the most favorable moments to trade Bar Harbor.
Bar Harbor Risk Indicators
Analyzing Bar Harbor's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off associated with bar stock. Forecasting Bar Harbor's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Variance | 3.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.85 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bar Harbor
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Bar Harbor Bankshares can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Bar Harbor Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Bar Harbor Bankshares is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 642.4 M |
More Resources for Bar Stock Analysis
A structured review of Bar Harbor Bankshares often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Bar Harbor's financial ratios translate raw accounting data into comparable profitability and efficiency signals. Selected reports below provide context for Bar Stock:Cross-verify projections for Bar Harbor using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bar Harbor. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set. With Bar Harbor showing P/E 13.09 and ROE 7.45%, investors get more value when this analysis is combined with the diversification and construction tools below. Additional scrutiny through the profitability and balance-sheet tools is warranted. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.01 | Dividend Share 1.26 | Earnings Share 2.31 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.289 |
Bar Harbor Bankshares's market price can diverge from book value, the accounting figure shown on Bar's balance sheet. Bar Harbor's market capitalization is 520.6 M. A P/B ratio of 0.98 suggests Bar Harbor trades near or below book value. Enterprise value stands at 718.53 M. Intrinsic value reflects what Bar Harbor's fundamentals imply about worth, which may differ from both the trading price and the book figure. Analytical frameworks help reconcile those views.
It is useful to distinguish Bar Harbor's value from its trading price, which are computed with different methods. For Bar Harbor, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 13.09, a P/B ratio of 0.98, a profit margin of 22.59%, and ROE of 7.45%. Bar Harbor market price reflects the current exchange level formed by active bids and offers.