Blue Gold Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BGL Stock   4.13  0.13  3.05%   
Blue Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Blue Gold's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Blue Gold's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Blue Gold fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength indicator of Blue Gold's share price is at 53 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Blue Gold, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 53

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Blue Gold's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Blue Gold and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Blue Gold's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Blue Gold Limited, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Blue Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Blue Gold Limited from the perspective of Blue Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Blue Relative Strength Index

The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Blue Gold Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 5.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.51.

Blue Gold Limited Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Blue Gold's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Blue. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Blue can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Blue Gold Limited. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Blue Gold's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Blue Gold.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Blue Gold Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 5.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.51.

Blue Gold after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 4.13  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Gold to cross-verify your projections.

Blue Gold Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Blue price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Blue using various technical indicators. When you analyze Blue charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Blue Gold Cash Forecast

To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Blue Gold's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2010-12-31
Previous Quarter
39.1 K
Current Value
37.2 K
Quarterly Volatility
295.7 K
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Blue Gold is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Blue Gold Limited value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Blue Gold Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Blue Gold Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 5.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Blue Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Blue Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Blue Gold Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Blue Gold  Blue Gold Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Blue Gold Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Blue Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Blue Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 21.15, respectively. We have considered Blue Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.13
5.14
Expected Value
21.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Blue Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Blue Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.6022
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.369
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1064
SAESum of the absolute errors22.5099
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Blue Gold Limited. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Blue Gold. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Blue Gold

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blue Gold Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.214.1320.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.183.6519.56
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Blue Gold. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Blue Gold's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Blue Gold's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Blue Gold Limited.

Blue Gold After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Blue Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Blue Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Blue Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Blue Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Blue Gold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Blue Gold's historical news coverage. Blue Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.21 and 20.04, respectively. We have considered Blue Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
4.13
4.13
After-hype Price
20.04
Upside
Blue Gold is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Blue Gold Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.

Blue Gold Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Blue Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Blue Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Blue Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.14 
16.01
  0.06 
  0.02 
4 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
4.13
4.13
0.00 
3,480  
Notes

Blue Gold Hype Timeline

On the 26th of January Blue Gold Limited is traded for 4.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Blue is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Blue Gold is about 14168.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.11. About 50.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Gold to cross-verify your projections.

Blue Gold Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Blue Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Blue Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how Blue Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Blue Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
USAUUS Gold Corp(0.30)2 per month 3.39  0.07  7.02 (5.03) 22.04 
VGZVista Gold(0.04)7 per month 3.47  0.12  10.50 (7.63) 22.77 
DCDakota Gold Corp(0.30)2 per month 2.95  0.13  5.90 (4.76) 26.64 
VOXRVox Royalty Corp 0.19 6 per month 2.86  0.09  5.36 (4.95) 11.87 
TRXTanzanian Royalty Exploration 0.01 8 per month 3.92  0.13  8.70 (8.00) 20.25 
CTGOContango ORE(0.26)8 per month 3.22  0.11  6.50 (5.58) 14.02 
NAMMNamib Minerals Ordinary(0.03)9 per month 5.73  0.07  10.67 (10.71) 46.98 
GLDGGoldMining(0.13)6 per month 3.82  0.05  6.11 (7.25) 18.48 
SMIDSmith Midland Corp 0.03 14 per month 0.00 (0.03) 4.54 (5.17) 13.48 
PLGPlatinum Group Metals(0.30)9 per month 4.48  0.09  8.91 (6.73) 24.10 

Other Forecasting Options for Blue Gold

For every potential investor in Blue, whether a beginner or expert, Blue Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Blue Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Blue. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Blue Gold's price trends.

Blue Gold Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Blue Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Blue Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Blue Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Blue Gold Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Blue Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Blue Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Blue Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Blue Gold Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Blue Gold Risk Indicators

The analysis of Blue Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Blue Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting blue stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Blue Gold

The number of cover stories for Blue Gold depends on current market conditions and Blue Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Blue Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Blue Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Blue Gold Short Properties

Blue Gold's future price predictability will typically decrease when Blue Gold's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Blue Gold Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Blue Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Blue Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding10.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments43.5 K
Shares Float12.4 M
When determining whether Blue Gold Limited is a strong investment it is important to analyze Blue Gold's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Blue Gold's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Blue Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Gold to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Gold space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blue Gold. If investors know Blue will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blue Gold listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Blue Gold Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blue that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blue Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blue Gold's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blue Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blue Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blue Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Blue Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blue Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.