Business First Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| BFST Stock | USD 26.07 -0.21 -0.80% |
This page provides reference data for Business First using Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Business First Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 26.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.70.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Business First observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Business First Bancshares observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Business First presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Business First Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 26.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.21 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.70 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Business Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Business First's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Business First | Business First Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Business First Bancshares focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 24.42 and upside near 27.60.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Business First stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Business First stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0285 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.334 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0121 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.7034 |
Other Forecasting Options for Business First
For investors considering Business, Business First's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in Business Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.Business First Related Equities
The following equities are related to Business First within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Business First against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Business First Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Business First provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Business First Bancshares.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 26.07 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 26.07 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.11 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.21 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.17 |
Business First Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of Business First's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in Business First's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Variance | 2.41 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Business First
Story coverage around Business First Bancshares often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Business First Short Properties
A short-interest review of Business First Bancshares provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Additional Tools for Business Stock Analysis
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like | |
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated | |
| Idea Optimizer Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges |