Saul Centers Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BFS Stock | USD 31.50 0.03 0.1% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Saul Centers on the next trading day is expected to be 31.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.61. Saul Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Saul Centers' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.05 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.81 | Wall Street Target Price 45.5 |
Using Saul Centers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Saul Centers from the perspective of Saul Centers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Saul Centers using Saul Centers' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Saul using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Saul Centers' stock price.
Saul Centers Short Interest
An investor who is long Saul Centers may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Saul Centers and may potentially protect profits, hedge Saul Centers with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 33.54 | Short Percent 0.0216 | Short Ratio 3.56 | Shares Short Prior Month 190.8 K | 50 Day MA 31.014 |
Saul Centers Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Saul Centers' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Saul. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Saul can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Saul Centers. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Saul Centers Implied Volatility | 0.84 |
Saul Centers' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Saul Centers stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Saul Centers' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Saul Centers stock will not fluctuate a lot when Saul Centers' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Saul Centers on the next trading day is expected to be 31.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.61. Saul Centers after-hype prediction price | USD 31.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Saul Centers to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Saul contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Saul Centers will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0525% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Saul Centers trading at USD 31.5, that is roughly USD 0.0165 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Saul Centers' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Saul Centers options at the current volatility level of 0.84%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Saul Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Saul Centers' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Saul Centers' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Saul Centers stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Saul Centers' open interest, investors have to compare it to Saul Centers' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Saul Centers is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Saul. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Saul Centers Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Saul price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Saul using various technical indicators. When you analyze Saul charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Saul Centers' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1995-12-31 | Previous Quarter 5.3 M | Current Value 11.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 12.1 M |
Saul Centers Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Saul Centers on the next trading day is expected to be 31.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Saul Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Saul Centers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Saul Centers Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Saul Centers | Saul Centers Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Saul Centers Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Saul Centers' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Saul Centers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.16 and 32.48, respectively. We have considered Saul Centers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Saul Centers stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Saul Centers stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9005 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.268 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0088 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.6143 |
Predictive Modules for Saul Centers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Saul Centers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Saul Centers After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Saul Centers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Saul Centers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Saul Centers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Saul Centers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Saul Centers' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Saul Centers' historical news coverage. Saul Centers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.34 and 32.66, respectively. We have considered Saul Centers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Saul Centers is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Saul Centers is based on 3 months time horizon.
Saul Centers Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Saul Centers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Saul Centers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Saul Centers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.16 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
31.50 | 31.50 | 0.00 |
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Saul Centers Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Saul Centers is traded for 31.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Saul is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on Saul Centers is about 563.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.51. About 49.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company last dividend was issued on the 15th of October 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Saul Centers to cross-verify your projections.Saul Centers Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Saul Centers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Saul Centers' future price movements. Getting to know how Saul Centers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Saul Centers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MITT | AG Mortgage Investment | 0.07 | 10 per month | 0.87 | 0.18 | 2.80 | (1.66) | 10.23 | |
| WSR | Whitestone REIT | 1.24 | 12 per month | 0.73 | 0.13 | 1.91 | (1.35) | 10.71 | |
| CBL | CBL Associates Properties | 0.15 | 31 per month | 0.98 | 0.18 | 2.81 | (2.06) | 7.19 | |
| RWT | Redwood Trust | (0.06) | 11 per month | 1.45 | 0.02 | 3.26 | (2.72) | 8.72 | |
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth | 0.43 | 10 per month | 0.78 | 0.15 | 1.74 | (1.57) | 4.98 | |
| TRTX | TPG RE Finance | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.97 | 0.05 | 2.00 | (1.65) | 6.00 | |
| RC | Ready Capital Corp | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.19 | (4.92) | 14.40 | |
| AHH | Armada Hflr Pr | 0.17 | 9 per month | 1.58 | (0) | 3.16 | (2.97) | 7.04 | |
| NXRT | Nexpoint Residential Trust | 0.07 | 5 per month | 1.61 | (0.02) | 2.80 | (2.90) | 8.15 | |
| BRSP | Brightspire Capital | (0.06) | 17 per month | 0.67 | 0.13 | 2.26 | (1.54) | 4.36 |
Other Forecasting Options for Saul Centers
For every potential investor in Saul, whether a beginner or expert, Saul Centers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Saul Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Saul. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Saul Centers' price trends.Saul Centers Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Saul Centers stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Saul Centers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Saul Centers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Saul Centers Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Saul Centers stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Saul Centers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Saul Centers stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Saul Centers entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 660.38 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.05) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 31.35 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 31.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.03) |
Saul Centers Risk Indicators
The analysis of Saul Centers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Saul Centers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting saul stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8971 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Variance | 1.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.94) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Saul Centers
The number of cover stories for Saul Centers depends on current market conditions and Saul Centers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Saul Centers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Saul Centers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Saul Centers Short Properties
Saul Centers' future price predictability will typically decrease when Saul Centers' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Saul Centers often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Saul Centers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Saul Centers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.3 M |
Additional Tools for Saul Stock Analysis
When running Saul Centers' price analysis, check to measure Saul Centers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Saul Centers is operating at the current time. Most of Saul Centers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Saul Centers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Saul Centers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Saul Centers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.