Banco Do Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BBAS3 Stock | BRL 24.28 0.83 3.54% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Banco do Brasil on the next trading day is expected to be 25.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.56. Banco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Banco Do's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Banco Do hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Banco do Brasil from the perspective of Banco Do response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Banco do Brasil on the next trading day is expected to be 25.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.56. Banco Do after-hype prediction price | BRL 24.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Banco |
Banco Do Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Banco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Banco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Banco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Banco Do Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Banco do Brasil on the next trading day is expected to be 25.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Banco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Banco Do's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Banco Do Stock Forecast Pattern
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Banco Do Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Banco Do's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Banco Do's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.25 and 26.83, respectively. We have considered Banco Do's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Banco Do stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Banco Do stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1495 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3043 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0138 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.5634 |
Predictive Modules for Banco Do
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Banco do Brasil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Banco Do After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Banco Do at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Banco Do or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Banco Do, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Banco Do Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Banco Do's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Banco Do's historical news coverage. Banco Do's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.49 and 26.07, respectively. We have considered Banco Do's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Banco Do is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Banco do Brasil is based on 3 months time horizon.
Banco Do Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Banco Do is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Banco Do backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Banco Do, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.28 | 24.28 | 0.00 |
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Banco Do Hype Timeline
Banco do Brasil is currently traded for 24.28on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Banco is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.28%. %. The volatility of related hype on Banco Do is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.28. About 50.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.58. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Banco do Brasil has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.33. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.92. The firm last dividend was issued on the 13th of December 2022. Banco Do had 1:2 split on the 16th of April 2024. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Banco Do to cross-verify your projections.Banco Do Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Banco Do's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Banco Do's future price movements. Getting to know how Banco Do's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Banco Do may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ITSA4 | Itasa Investimentos | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.86 | 0.24 | 2.76 | (1.59) | 6.99 | |
| ITSA3 | Itasa Investimentos | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.61 | 0.19 | 3.14 | (2.40) | 14.75 | |
| SANB4 | Banco Santander SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.43 | 0.14 | 3.13 | (2.59) | 8.78 | |
| SANB11 | Banco Santander SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.56 | 0.15 | 2.75 | (3.15) | 8.41 | |
| BBDC3 | Banco Bradesco SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.43 | 0.13 | 2.59 | (2.56) | 8.16 | |
| BBDC4 | Banco Bradesco SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.60 | 0.11 | 2.97 | (2.76) | 9.20 | |
| BPAC3 | Banco BTG Pactual | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.77 | 0.23 | 5.11 | (3.50) | 14.97 | |
| BBSE3 | BB Seguridade Participacoes | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.94 | 0.14 | 1.69 | (1.94) | 4.79 | |
| BMEB3 | Banco Mercantil do | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.35 | 0.06 | 3.85 | (6.26) | 36.45 | |
| BEES3 | Banestes SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.36 | 0.07 | 0.78 | (0.79) | 5.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Banco Do
For every potential investor in Banco, whether a beginner or expert, Banco Do's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Banco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Banco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Banco Do's price trends.Banco Do Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Banco Do stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Banco Do could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Banco Do by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Banco Do Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Banco Do stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Banco Do shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Banco Do stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Banco do Brasil entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Banco Do Risk Indicators
The analysis of Banco Do's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Banco Do's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting banco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Variance | 3.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.9 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.34) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Banco Do
The number of cover stories for Banco Do depends on current market conditions and Banco Do's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Banco Do is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Banco Do's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Banco Do Short Properties
Banco Do's future price predictability will typically decrease when Banco Do's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Banco do Brasil often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Banco Do's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Banco Do's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 130.1 B |
Additional Tools for Banco Stock Analysis
When running Banco Do's price analysis, check to measure Banco Do's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Banco Do is operating at the current time. Most of Banco Do's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Banco Do's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Banco Do's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Banco Do to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.