GraniteShares Gold Etf Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BAR Etf | USD 44.34 -1.39 -3.04% |
This reference page presents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for GraniteShares Gold Trust. The model output shown here is derived from GraniteShares Gold's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GraniteShares Gold Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 44.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.57.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting GraniteShares Gold Trust forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent GraniteShares Gold observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for GraniteShares Gold Trust is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GraniteShares Gold Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 44.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.54 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.57 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GraniteShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GraniteShares Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GraniteShares Gold | GraniteShares Gold Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for GraniteShares Gold Trust focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 41.81 on the downside to about 46.87 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GraniteShares Gold etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GraniteShares Gold etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5409 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0097 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8782 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0183 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 53.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for GraniteShares Gold
For every potential investor in GraniteShares, whether a beginner or expert, GraniteShares Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.GraniteShares Gold Related Equities
The following equities are related to GraniteShares Gold within the Commodities Focused space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing GraniteShares Gold against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GraniteShares Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GraniteShares Gold etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GraniteShares Gold shares will generate the highest return on.
| Accumulation Distribution | 42104.66 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.76 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 45.03 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 44.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -1.38 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -1.39 |
GraniteShares Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of GraniteShares Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GraniteShares Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.45 | |||
| Variance | 5.99 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.67 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GraniteShares Gold
A coverage review of GraniteShares Gold Trust shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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More Resources for GraniteShares Etf Analysis
Understanding GraniteShares Gold Trust starts with its core financial statements, trend data, and ratio analysis. Financial ratios help explain how results are produced and sustained. The dataset reflects GraniteShares Gold's available reporting history.GraniteShares Gold's projection data benefits from cross-verification using Historical Fundamental Analysis of GraniteShares Gold. Historical trends in GraniteShares Gold's fundamentals help frame the current projections. GraniteShares Gold information on this page supports broader research rather than acting as a stand-alone signal. The supplemental views below help investors decide how GraniteShares Gold complements or overlaps with existing portfolio holdings. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Comparing GraniteShares Gold's market price with book value reveals how market sentiment relates to accounting fundamentals. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Analytical frameworks help reconcile those views into a coherent picture.
Value and price for GraniteShares Gold may converge over time but can differ substantially in any given period. Inputs to the value estimate include reported fundamentals, market multiples, and growth assumptions. Exchange pricing for GraniteShares Gold reflects real-time supply and demand across active participants. The dataset reflects available inputs without directional implication.