BROWN ADVISORY Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| BAFSX Fund | USD 37.43 -0.68 -1.78% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for BROWN ADVISORY is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Brown Advisory Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 37.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.60.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past BROWN ADVISORY observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Brown Advisory Small Cap observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for BROWN ADVISORY presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Brown Advisory Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 37.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.19 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.60 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BROWN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BROWN ADVISORY's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest BROWN ADVISORY | BROWN ADVISORY Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates BROWN ADVISORY's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BROWN ADVISORY mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BROWN ADVISORY mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0686 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3491 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0087 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.5975 |
Other Forecasting Options for BROWN ADVISORY
The distribution of BROWN ADVISORY's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in BROWN ADVISORY's chart that simple price charts miss.BROWN ADVISORY Related Equities
These related stocks within the Small Growth space give benchmarks for judging BROWN ADVISORY's results, margins, and growth trend. Market cap and total value checks frame BROWN ADVISORY's size within the competitive field. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
BROWN ADVISORY Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for BROWN ADVISORY give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Brown Advisory Small Cap.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 37.43 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 37.43 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.34 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.68 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 37.48 |
BROWN ADVISORY Risk Indicators
A thorough review of BROWN ADVISORY's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in BROWN ADVISORY's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8346 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Variance | 1.16 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for BROWN ADVISORY
A coverage review of Brown Advisory Small Cap shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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