Alibaba Group Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| BABA34 Stock | BRL 25.22 -0.08 -0.32% |
Alibaba Group's Simple Moving Average reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 25.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.38.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Alibaba Group Holding price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Alibaba Group. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average reference values for Alibaba Group are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 25.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.69 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.38 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alibaba Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alibaba Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alibaba Group | Alibaba Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Alibaba Group Holding focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 22.70 on the downside to about 27.74 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alibaba Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alibaba Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8948 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0944 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6564 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0223 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.385 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alibaba Group
For investors of all experience levels considering Alibaba, understanding Alibaba Group's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. Alibaba Stock price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.Alibaba Group Related Equities
The following equities are related to Alibaba Group within the Internet Retail space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Alibaba Group against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alibaba Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Alibaba Group stock provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Alibaba Group.
Alibaba Group Risk Indicators
Assessing Alibaba Group's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Alibaba Group's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.45 | |||
| Variance | 6.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alibaba Group
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Alibaba Group Holding can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Alibaba Stock
Understanding Alibaba Group Holding typically begins with financial statements and long-term trend review. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Alibaba Group Holding Stock. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for Alibaba Group Holding Stock:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alibaba Group to cross-verify projections for Alibaba Group. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Alibaba Group currently shows ROE of -0.12%, market cap of 11.27 Trillion. Investors get more value from Alibaba Group analysis when it is combined with the construction and diversification tools listed below. Within the Consumer Cyclical space, Alibaba Group peer comparison and risk tools below help frame relative strengths and weaknesses. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.