Axsome Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AXSM Stock | USD 158.69 2.61 1.67% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter -0.58 | EPS Estimate Current Year -1.04 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.7625 | Wall Street Target Price 222.4676 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter -0.73 |
This section frames Axsome Therapeutics response to recent headlines in a peer context. Sentiment context here is built from Axsome Therapeutics' options activity and short interest data.
Axsome Therapeutics Short Interest Reading
For Axsome Therapeutics investors, short interest trends complement other technical and fundamental signals. A stock with high short interest and improving fundamentals is often a strong candidate for a price recovery.
200 Day MA 135.9315 | Short Percent 0.0602 | Short Ratio 4.3 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.7 M | 50 Day MA 175.9694 |
RSI Panel for Axsome
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Axsome Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 157.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 188.31.Hype-Price Trend View - Axsome Therapeutics
Tracking public sentiment around Axsome Therapeutics quantifies the psychological premium or discount embedded in Axsome Therapeutics' current price. Extreme sentiment readings frequently mark turning points in the stock.
The ratio of positive to negative sentiment signals around Axsome Therapeutics provides a composite view of how the stock is perceived by the market. A sharp shift in this ratio often precedes a change in price direction.
Axsome Therapeutics Implied Volatility | 1.12 |
Axsome Therapeutics' implied volatility tends to be mean-reverting. Periods of extremely high implied volatility in Axsome Therapeutics options are often followed by a contraction as uncertainty resolves, eroding the value of recently purchased options.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Axsome Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 157.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 188.31.Axsome Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | $ 158.08 |
Hype metrics are shown as one component among forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings context.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axsome Therapeutics provides a cross-check on projections for Axsome Therapeutics. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 for the current Axsome contract
Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-03-20 options is about 7.0%. At a recent price around $ 158.69, the implied daily move is approximately $ 11.11 , which is informational only.
Open Interest Context: Axsome 2026-03-20 Options
Open interest summarizes open contracts on Axsome Therapeutics and offers neutral context on positioning.
Axsome Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Axsome price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Axsome using various technical indicators. When you analyze Axsome charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Axsome Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 157.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.19 , mean absolute percentage error of 31.57 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 188.31 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Axsome Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Axsome Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Axsome Therapeutics | Axsome Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Axsome Therapeutics uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 154.23 and upside near 161.15.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Axsome Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Axsome Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.1981 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.1917 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0183 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 188.31 |
Mean reversion in Axsome Therapeutics is more reliable over longer time horizons. Short-term deviations can persist and even widen before correcting, making position sizing and risk management critical.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Investors who rely solely on expected value estimates for Axsome Therapeutics miss the full picture. Axsome Therapeutics' probability distribution reveals that expected value can be achieved through very different combinations of outcomes, each with different risk implications.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The after-news price analysis for Axsome Therapeutics is built on the observation that Axsome Therapeutics' market reactions to news are not random but follow recognizable patterns. Axsome Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 154.62 and 161.54, respectively. Identifying and quantifying these patterns for Axsome Therapeutics is the core purpose of this model.
Current Value
The next after-hype price estimate for Axsome Therapeutics is modeled on a 3 months horizon and is intended to show how price could normalize after sentiment pressure fades. Used correctly, the estimate adds context around potential normalization rather than promising a specific realized outcome.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Axsome Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Axsome Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Axsome Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 3.46 | 0.61 | 0.03 | 10 Events | 7 Events | In 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
158.69 | 158.08 | 0.38 |
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Hype Timeline
Axsome Therapeutics is presently traded for 158.69. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.61, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Axsome is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 158.08. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 102.06%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.38%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Axsome Therapeutics is about 2122.7%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 158.72. About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 3.68. Axsome Therapeutics had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 10 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axsome Therapeutics provides a cross-check on projections for Axsome Therapeutics. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
The information ratio and semi-deviation metrics in the peer comparison table for Axsome Therapeutics provide a risk-adjusted view of how efficiently Axsome Therapeutics' competitors convert news exposure into returns relative to downside risk.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NUVL | Nuvalent | -2.83 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 2.93 | -3.90 | 15.70 | |
| MTSR | Metsera Common Stock | -0.13 | 8 per month | 2.40 | 0.18 | 14.25 | -4.09 | 75.60 | |
| MRUS | Merus BV | -0.06 | 7 per month | 0.60 | 0.12 | 0.51 | -0.23 | 36.44 | |
| ABVX | Abivax SA American | 3.66 | 9 per month | 3.72 | 0.03 | 6.20 | -6.57 | 29.38 | |
| CYTK | Cytokinetics | -5.23 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 3.98 | -3.95 | 15.74 | |
| RYTM | Rhythm Pharmaceuticals | -3.93 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.06 | 4.55 | -5.14 | 18.69 | |
| ARWR | Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals | 1.07 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.08 | 3.55 | -5.66 | 18.08 | |
| CRSP | Crispr Therapeutics AG | -1.30 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 6.23 | -6.35 | 22.02 | |
| PCVX | Vaxcyte | 5.04 | 7 per month | 2.15 | 0.12 | 5.68 | -3.13 | 12.67 | |
| JAZZ | Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC | 5.34 | 8 per month | 2.00 | 0.06 | 1.85 | -3.95 | 17.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for Axsome Therapeutics
For investors considering Axsome, Axsome Therapeutics' price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in Axsome Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.Axsome Therapeutics Related Equities
The following equities are related to Axsome Therapeutics within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Axsome Therapeutics against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Axsome Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Axsome Therapeutics provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Axsome Therapeutics.
Axsome Therapeutics Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of Axsome Therapeutics' risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in Axsome Therapeutics' allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.37 | |||
| Variance | 11.38 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.03 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Axsome Therapeutics
Coverage intensity for Axsome Therapeutics matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Axsome Therapeutics Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Axsome Therapeutics matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 49.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 322.9 M |
More Resources for Axsome Stock Analysis
A comprehensive view of Axsome Therapeutics starts with financial statements and ratio context. Ratio analysis helps investors evaluate Axsome Therapeutics Stock operating efficiency and financial trajectory. Highlighted below are reports that provide context for Axsome Therapeutics Stock:Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axsome Therapeutics provides a cross-check on projections for Axsome Therapeutics. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set. To understand the process of investing in Axsome Stock, visit our How to Invest in Axsome Therapeutics guide.Axsome Therapeutics currently shows ROE of -2.52%, market cap of 7.98 Billion. Axsome Therapeutics data on this page supports broader research - the resources below add portfolio-level context. Axsome Therapeutics analysis across multiple dimensions - risk, valuation, diversification - produces a more informed position-sizing decision. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Earnings Share -3.68 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.65 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Axsome Therapeutics includes distinguishing between market value and book value, where book value reflects Axsome's accounting equity. Axsome Therapeutics' market capitalization is 7.98 B. The 90.42 P/B ratio shows Axsome Therapeutics carries a substantial premium over its balance-sheet equity. Enterprise value stands at 7.88 B. The intrinsic value concept focuses on underlying worth, which can diverge from market price and book value. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single context.
The concept of value for Axsome Therapeutics differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Axsome Therapeutics, key inputs include a P/B ratio of 90.42, a profit margin of -28.69%, ROE of -2.52%, and revenue of 638.5 M. The quoted Axsome Therapeutics price is the exchange level where supply meets demand.