Arrow Exploration Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

AXL Stock  CAD 0.33  0.01  2.94%   
Arrow Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of relative strength index of Arrow Exploration's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Arrow Exploration's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Arrow Exploration and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Arrow Exploration's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Arrow Exploration Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Arrow Exploration hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arrow Exploration Corp from the perspective of Arrow Exploration response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Arrow Exploration Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.86.

Arrow Exploration after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 0.35  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arrow Exploration to cross-verify your projections.

Arrow Exploration Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Arrow price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arrow using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arrow charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Arrow Exploration price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Arrow Exploration Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Arrow Exploration Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.86.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arrow Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arrow Exploration's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Arrow Exploration Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Arrow Exploration  Arrow Exploration Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Arrow Exploration Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Arrow Exploration's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arrow Exploration's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 4.81, respectively. We have considered Arrow Exploration's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.33
0.31
Expected Value
4.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arrow Exploration stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arrow Exploration stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.1316
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.014
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0532
SAESum of the absolute errors0.8555
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Arrow Exploration Corp historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Arrow Exploration

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arrow Exploration Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.020.354.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.020.314.85
Details

Arrow Exploration After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Arrow Exploration at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arrow Exploration or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arrow Exploration, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Arrow Exploration Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Arrow Exploration's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arrow Exploration's historical news coverage. Arrow Exploration's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 4.89, respectively. We have considered Arrow Exploration's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.33
0.35
After-hype Price
4.89
Upside
Arrow Exploration is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arrow Exploration Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Arrow Exploration Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arrow Exploration is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arrow Exploration backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arrow Exploration, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.75 
4.50
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.33
0.35
6.06 
0.00  
Notes

Arrow Exploration Hype Timeline

Arrow Exploration Corp is presently traded for 0.33on TSX Venture Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Arrow is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.35 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price increase on the next news is anticipated to be 6.06%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.75%. The volatility of related hype on Arrow Exploration is about 180000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.33. The company has Profit Margin (PM) of 0.09 %, which maeans that even a very small decline in it revenue will erase profits resulting in a net loss. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of 0.26 %, which suggests for every 100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating income of $0.26. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arrow Exploration to cross-verify your projections.

Arrow Exploration Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Arrow Exploration's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arrow Exploration's future price movements. Getting to know how Arrow Exploration's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arrow Exploration may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Arrow Exploration

For every potential investor in Arrow, whether a beginner or expert, Arrow Exploration's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arrow Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arrow. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arrow Exploration's price trends.

Arrow Exploration Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arrow Exploration stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arrow Exploration could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arrow Exploration by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Arrow Exploration Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arrow Exploration stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arrow Exploration shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arrow Exploration stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arrow Exploration Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Arrow Exploration Risk Indicators

The analysis of Arrow Exploration's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arrow Exploration's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arrow stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Arrow Exploration

The number of cover stories for Arrow Exploration depends on current market conditions and Arrow Exploration's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arrow Exploration is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arrow Exploration's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Additional Tools for Arrow Stock Analysis

When running Arrow Exploration's price analysis, check to measure Arrow Exploration's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arrow Exploration is operating at the current time. Most of Arrow Exploration's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arrow Exploration's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arrow Exploration's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arrow Exploration to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.