Advent Claymore Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AVK Fund | USD 12.00 0.01 0.08% |
This reference page covers Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast output for Advent Claymore Convertible, including the projected price and deviation metrics. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Advent Claymore Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 11.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.32.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Advent Claymore observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Advent Claymore Convertible observations. All forecast values on this page for Advent Claymore Convertible are Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Advent Claymore Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 11.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.32 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advent Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advent Claymore's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Advent Claymore Convertible uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 11.27 and upside around 12.70 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advent Claymore fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advent Claymore fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0175 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.072 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0059 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.3224 |
Other Forecasting Options for Advent Claymore
Price movement is the most critical factor for any investor assessing the potential of Advent as an investment. The noise inherent in Advent Fund price charts can obscure the underlying direction and make investment decisions more challenging.Advent Claymore Related Equities
The following equities are related to Advent Claymore within the Asset Management space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Advent Claymore against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Advent Claymore Market Strength Events
For investors in Advent Claymore Convertible, market strength indicators provide essential context about how the fund responds to prevailing market trends. These tools support more informed decisions about when to trade Advent Claymore for maximum effect.
Advent Claymore Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Advent Claymore's risk indicators provides investors with important context for price forecasting and investment decision-making. By understanding how much risk is embedded in Advent Claymore's investment, investors can make better choices about position sizing,.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5551 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7041 | |||
| Variance | 0.4957 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Advent Claymore
A coverage review of Advent Claymore Convertible helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
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