American Beacon Mutual Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| AVFIX Fund | USD 24.85 0.59 2.43% |
The Polynomial Regression forecast shown here for American Beacon is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Polynomial Regression output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Beacon Small on the next trading day is expected to be 23.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.11.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the American Beacon historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm This Polynomial Regression reference page for American Beacon presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Beacon Small on the next trading day is expected to be 23.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.13 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.11 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Beacon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Beacon | American Beacon Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates American Beacon's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 22.53 and upside around 24.80 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Beacon mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Beacon mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0384 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2969 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0118 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.1139 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Beacon
The distribution of American Beacon's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in American Beacon's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of American Beacon's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in American.American Beacon Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of American Beacon within the Small Value space and offer context for ranking and strength. Market cap and total value checks frame American Beacon's size within the competitive field. How American Beacon ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes. These links can also guide portfolio spreading choices within the sector.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Beacon Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for American Beacon give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in American Beacon Small. Market strength analysis for American Beacon Small works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For American Beacon, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 24.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 24.85 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.29 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.59 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.97 |
American Beacon Risk Indicators
A thorough review of American Beacon's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in American Beacon's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of American Beacon's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in American Beacon's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8225 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.33 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Beacon
A coverage review of American Beacon Small shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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