AvalonBay Communities Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AVB Stock | USD 172.97 3.06 1.74% |
AvalonBay Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AvalonBay Communities stock prices and determine the direction of AvalonBay Communities's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AvalonBay Communities' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of AvalonBay Communities' share price is approaching 44. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AvalonBay Communities, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.024 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.6248 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.8351 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.1254 | Wall Street Target Price 200.1667 |
Using AvalonBay Communities hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AvalonBay Communities from the perspective of AvalonBay Communities response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AvalonBay Communities using AvalonBay Communities' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AvalonBay using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AvalonBay Communities' stock price.
AvalonBay Communities Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in AvalonBay Communities' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards AvalonBay. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of AvalonBay Communities stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 192.0228 | Short Percent 0.0559 | Short Ratio 5.9 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.5 M | 50 Day MA 179.6552 |
AvalonBay Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AvalonBay Communities on the next trading day is expected to be 172.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.73.AvalonBay Communities Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AvalonBay Communities' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AvalonBay. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AvalonBay can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AvalonBay Communities. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AvalonBay Communities' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AvalonBay Communities.
AvalonBay Communities Implied Volatility | 0.27 |
AvalonBay Communities' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AvalonBay Communities stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AvalonBay Communities' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AvalonBay Communities stock will not fluctuate a lot when AvalonBay Communities' options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AvalonBay Communities on the next trading day is expected to be 172.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.73. AvalonBay Communities after-hype prediction price | USD 172.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AvalonBay contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AvalonBay Communities will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0169% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With AvalonBay Communities trading at USD 172.97, that is roughly USD 0.0292 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AvalonBay Communities' daily price movement you should consider acquiring AvalonBay Communities options at the current volatility level of 0.27%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 AvalonBay Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AvalonBay Communities' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AvalonBay Communities' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AvalonBay Communities stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AvalonBay Communities' open interest, investors have to compare it to AvalonBay Communities' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AvalonBay Communities is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AvalonBay. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
AvalonBay Communities Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AvalonBay price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AvalonBay using various technical indicators. When you analyze AvalonBay charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AvalonBay Communities Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AvalonBay Communities on the next trading day is expected to be 172.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.50, mean absolute percentage error of 3.64, and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AvalonBay Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AvalonBay Communities' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AvalonBay Communities Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AvalonBay Communities | AvalonBay Communities Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AvalonBay Communities Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AvalonBay Communities' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AvalonBay Communities' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 171.35 and 173.57, respectively. We have considered AvalonBay Communities' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AvalonBay Communities stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AvalonBay Communities stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0149 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4955 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0084 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 89.7281 |
Predictive Modules for AvalonBay Communities
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AvalonBay Communities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AvalonBay Communities' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AvalonBay Communities After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AvalonBay Communities at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AvalonBay Communities or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AvalonBay Communities, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AvalonBay Communities Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AvalonBay Communities' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AvalonBay Communities' historical news coverage. AvalonBay Communities' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 171.87 and 174.07, respectively. We have considered AvalonBay Communities' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AvalonBay Communities is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AvalonBay Communities is based on 3 months time horizon.
AvalonBay Communities Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AvalonBay Communities is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AvalonBay Communities backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AvalonBay Communities, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.11 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
172.97 | 172.97 | 0.00 |
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AvalonBay Communities Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January AvalonBay Communities is traded for 172.97. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. AvalonBay is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 53.88%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on AvalonBay Communities is about 306.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 172.97. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of AvalonBay Communities was presently reported as 84.41. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.2. AvalonBay Communities last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. The entity had 8:9 split on the 7th of January 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AvalonBay Communities to cross-verify your projections.AvalonBay Communities Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AvalonBay Communities' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AvalonBay Communities' future price movements. Getting to know how AvalonBay Communities' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AvalonBay Communities may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EQR | Equity Residential | 1.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.06 | (2.24) | 6.31 | |
| MAA | Mid America Apartment Communities | (3.18) | 8 per month | 1.13 | (0.06) | 2.05 | (1.91) | 5.24 | |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust | (0.10) | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.87 | (2.35) | 5.05 | |
| EXR | Extra Space Storage | (2.18) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.50 | (2.01) | 5.57 | |
| SBAC | SBA Communications Corp | (0.95) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.71 | (2.93) | 6.38 | |
| INVH | Invitation Homes | 0.06 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.16 | (2.24) | 9.44 | |
| AMH | American Homes 4 | 0.69 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.00 | (2.29) | 7.05 | |
| ELS | Equity Lifestyle Properties | 1.81 | 8 per month | 1.18 | (0.06) | 2.11 | (1.73) | 4.37 | |
| SUI | Sun Communities | (0.46) | 32 per month | 1.26 | (0.04) | 2.24 | (2.11) | 6.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for AvalonBay Communities
For every potential investor in AvalonBay, whether a beginner or expert, AvalonBay Communities' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AvalonBay Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AvalonBay. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AvalonBay Communities' price trends.AvalonBay Communities Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AvalonBay Communities stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AvalonBay Communities could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AvalonBay Communities by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AvalonBay Communities Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AvalonBay Communities stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AvalonBay Communities shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AvalonBay Communities stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AvalonBay Communities entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 24173.93 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.66) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 174.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 173.91 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.94) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (3.06) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 44.22 |
AvalonBay Communities Risk Indicators
The analysis of AvalonBay Communities' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AvalonBay Communities' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting avalonbay stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8928 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Variance | 1.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AvalonBay Communities
The number of cover stories for AvalonBay Communities depends on current market conditions and AvalonBay Communities' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AvalonBay Communities is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AvalonBay Communities' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AvalonBay Communities Short Properties
AvalonBay Communities' future price predictability will typically decrease when AvalonBay Communities' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AvalonBay Communities often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AvalonBay Communities' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AvalonBay Communities' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 142.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 108.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AvalonBay Communities to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade AvalonBay Stock refer to our How to Trade AvalonBay Stock guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Multi-Family Residential REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AvalonBay Communities. If investors know AvalonBay will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive AvalonBay Communities assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.024 | Dividend Share 6.95 | Earnings Share 8.2 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.044 |
Understanding AvalonBay Communities requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects AvalonBay's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what AvalonBay Communities' is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push AvalonBay Communities' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that AvalonBay Communities' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether AvalonBay Communities represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, AvalonBay Communities' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.