Autolus Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AUTL Stock | USD 1.29 -0.04 -3.01% |
The Simple Moving Average forecast reference data for Autolus Therapeutics is based on the equity's recent trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Autolus Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 1.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.91.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Autolus Therapeutics price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Autolus Therapeutics. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average projections for Autolus Therapeutics are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Autolus Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 1.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.91 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Autolus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Autolus Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Autolus Therapeutics | Autolus Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Autolus Therapeutics' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 0.01 and upside around 6.05 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Autolus Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Autolus Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.6207 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0161 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0663 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.043 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for Autolus Therapeutics
Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of Autolus Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When Autolus Therapeutics' RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in Autolus Therapeutics' returns can persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.Autolus Therapeutics Related Equities
These stocks within the Health Care space are often compared to Autolus Therapeutics by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces. Tracking Autolus Therapeutics' results against these peers over time helps spot rising trends early.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Autolus Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Autolus Therapeutics enables investors to understand relative stock momentum. These tools help identify favorable windows for position changes in Autolus Therapeutics. Market strength indicators support more precise timing of Autolus Therapeutics positions across market cycles.
Autolus Therapeutics Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Autolus Therapeutics' key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in Autolus Therapeutics' and determining how best to manage it. Studying Autolus Therapeutics' risk indicators helps investors understand the risk level of autolus stock.
| Mean Deviation | 3.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.74 | |||
| Variance | 22.42 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Autolus Therapeutics
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Autolus Therapeutics can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Autolus Therapeutics Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Autolus Therapeutics matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 255.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 588 M |