ATyr Pharma Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ATYR Stock | 0.81 -0.02 -2.41% |
This reference page presents Simple Regression forecast data for aTyr Pharma. The model output shown here is derived from ATyr Pharma's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of aTyr Pharma on the next trading day is expected to be 0.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.22.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as aTyr Pharma historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. This Simple Regression forecast data for aTyr Pharma is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of aTyr Pharma on the next trading day is expected to be 0.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.22 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ATyr Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ATyr Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ATyr Pharma | ATyr Pharma Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates ATyr Pharma's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 0.01 on the downside to about 6.60 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ATyr Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ATyr Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1327 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0692 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0816 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.2224 |
Other Forecasting Options for ATyr Pharma
For every potential investor in ATyr, whether a beginner or expert, ATyr Pharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.ATyr Pharma Related Equities
The following equities are related to ATyr Pharma within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ATyr Pharma against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ATyr Pharma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ATyr Pharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ATyr Pharma shares will generate the highest return on.
ATyr Pharma Risk Indicators
The analysis of ATyr Pharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ATyr Pharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 3.89 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.56 | |||
| Variance | 30.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.29 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -5.64 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ATyr Pharma
A coverage review of aTyr Pharma shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
ATyr Pharma Short Properties
A short-interest review of aTyr Pharma provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 93 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 78.7 M |
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