ALGER 35 Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ATVPX Fund | USD 18.10 -0.51 -2.74% |
This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Alger 35 Fund presents model-generated forecast data based on historical daily prices. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alger 35 Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 18.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.30.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Alger 35 Fund forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent ALGER 35 observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Alger 35 Fund are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alger 35 Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 18.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.08 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.30 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ALGER Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ALGER 35's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ALGER 35 | ALGER 35 Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Alger 35 Fund for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ALGER 35 mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ALGER 35 mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.7316 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0287 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2217 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0117 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.3 |
Other Forecasting Options for ALGER 35
Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether ALGER is a viable investment for any investor. ALGER Mutual Fund price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.ALGER 35 Related Equities
The following equities are related to ALGER 35 within the Large Growth space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ALGER 35 against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ALGER 35 Market Strength Events
Assessing the market strength of ALGER 35 mutual fund provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading Alger 35 Fund is most likely to be profitable.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.1 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.25 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.51 |
ALGER 35 Risk Indicators
The analysis of ALGER 35's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in ALGER 35's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.09 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ALGER 35
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Alger 35 Fund can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.