Allianz Technology Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ATT Stock | 543.00 4.00 0.73% |
Allianz Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Allianz Technology stock prices and determine the direction of Allianz Technology Trust's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Allianz Technology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Allianz Technology's share price is at 52. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Allianz Technology, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.87) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.86) |
Using Allianz Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allianz Technology Trust from the perspective of Allianz Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Allianz Technology Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 543.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 369.89. Allianz Technology after-hype prediction price | GBX 543.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Allianz |
Allianz Technology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Allianz price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allianz using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allianz charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Allianz Technology Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Allianz Technology Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 543.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.06, mean absolute percentage error of 63.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 369.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allianz Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allianz Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Allianz Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Allianz Technology | Allianz Technology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Allianz Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Allianz Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allianz Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 541.64 and 544.83, respectively. We have considered Allianz Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allianz Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allianz Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.2651 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.052 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.0638 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0116 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 369.8944 |
Predictive Modules for Allianz Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allianz Technology Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Allianz Technology After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Allianz Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Allianz Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Allianz Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Allianz Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Allianz Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Allianz Technology's historical news coverage. Allianz Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 541.39 and 544.61, respectively. We have considered Allianz Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Allianz Technology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Allianz Technology Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Allianz Technology Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Allianz Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Allianz Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Allianz Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.60 | 0.34 | 0.02 | 5 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
543.00 | 543.00 | 0.00 |
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Allianz Technology Hype Timeline
Allianz Technology Trust is presently traded for 543.00on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Allianz is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 9.41%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Allianz Technology is about 178.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 543.02. About 37.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.1. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Allianz Technology Trust had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 10:1 split on the 4th of May 2021. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allianz Technology to cross-verify your projections.Allianz Technology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Allianz Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Allianz Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how Allianz Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Allianz Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 0RIA | Diagnostic Medical Systems | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.78 | (0.76) | 7.04 | |
| 0HI1 | Arrow Electronics | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.65 | (2.29) | 8.47 | |
| 0GA3 | Telecom Italia SpA | (0.01) | 6 per month | 1.43 | 0.09 | 3.57 | (3.45) | 9.93 | |
| SMSD | Samsung Electronics Co | 5.00 | 4 per month | 2.00 | 0.20 | 5.44 | (3.79) | 10.30 | |
| TAM | Tatton Asset Management | 7.86 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.23 | (1.73) | 8.72 | |
| 0J1G | Guidewire Software | (5.33) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.34) | 2.94 | (6.34) | 10.69 | |
| 0JDO | Iridium Communications | (0.13) | 5 per month | 2.81 | 0.02 | 5.28 | (5.62) | 13.25 | |
| 0Q1S | Verizon Communications | (0.23) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.74 | (2.14) | 5.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for Allianz Technology
For every potential investor in Allianz, whether a beginner or expert, Allianz Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allianz Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allianz. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allianz Technology's price trends.Allianz Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allianz Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allianz Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allianz Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Allianz Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allianz Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allianz Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allianz Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allianz Technology Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 17705.15 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.34) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 541.17 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 541.78 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.17) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.49 |
Allianz Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Allianz Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allianz Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allianz stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Variance | 2.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Allianz Technology
The number of cover stories for Allianz Technology depends on current market conditions and Allianz Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Allianz Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Allianz Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Allianz Technology Short Properties
Allianz Technology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Allianz Technology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Allianz Technology Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Allianz Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allianz Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 384.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 33.8 M |
Other Information on Investing in Allianz Stock
Allianz Technology financial ratios help investors to determine whether Allianz Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Allianz with respect to the benefits of owning Allianz Technology security.