Astronics Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ATRO Stock  USD 63.93  -3.92  -5.78%   
In the current reporting cycle, Astronics reflects RSI of 0, indicating compressed downside momentum. This extreme reading suggests selling pressure has dominated recent sessions and may be due for at least a temporary pause.
Momentum
Sell Peaked
 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The hype cycle around Astronics can be quantified and compared to historical sentiment baselines. This module uses that comparison to generate price predictions that reflect the sentiment component of market value. Fundamental factors used to frame Astronics' forecast:
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
-0.07
 EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.5767
 EPS Estimate Current Year
2.6425
 EPS Estimate Next Year
3.1425
 Wall Street Target Price
87.576
This view relates Astronics' headline activity to recent price response context. Options and short interest provide context for sentiment around Astronics in this section.

Short Interest Tracking - Astronics

Astronics short interest relative to sector peers provides additional context. If Astronics' short interest is significantly higher than competitors. the market may perceive company-specific risks that warrant investigation.
 200 Day MA
49.5219
 Short Percent
0.1103
 Short Ratio
5.63
 Shares Short Prior Month
3.6 M
 50 Day MA
73.25

RSI Oscillator - Astronics

The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astronics on the next trading day is expected to be 60.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 103.64.

Attention-to-Price Pattern - Astronics

The relationship between Astronics' news sentiment and price action reveals how efficiently the market processes new information about Astronics. Persistent sentiment-price gaps create exploitable opportunities for disciplined investors.
Investors who systematically buy Astronics when sentiment is deeply negative and sell when it is excessively positive have historically captured mean-reversion returns not available to purely fundamental or technical investors.
Astronics Implied Volatility
    
  0.73  
Implied volatility in Astronics' options does not predict direction - it measures magnitude. An investor expecting a large move in Astronics stock in either direction may benefit from strategies that profit from volatility expansion.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astronics on the next trading day is expected to be 60.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 103.64.
Astronics after-hype prediction price
    
  $ 63.78  
The sentiment view is a companion to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
Cross-verify projections for Astronics using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astronics. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.
Our How to Buy Astronics Stock guide explains the steps to invest in Astronics stock.

Rule 16 Reference for the current Astronics contract - Performance Context

Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-06-18 options is about 0.0456%. This context is informational: with Astronics near $ 63.93, the daily move estimate is $ 0.0292 .

Open Interest Map for Astronics Options 2026-06-18

The open interest measure summarizes active contracts for Astronics and can be paired with trend context.

Astronics Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Astronics price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Astronics using various technical indicators. When you analyze Astronics charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Astronics - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Astronics prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Astronics price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Astronics.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of March 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astronics on the next trading day is expected to be 60.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.76 , mean absolute percentage error of 5.25 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 103.64 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Astronics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Astronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Astronics  Astronics Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Astronics uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
63.93
60.97
Expected Value
64.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Astronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Astronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0539
MADMean absolute deviation1.7565
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0257
SAESum of the absolute errors103.6363
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Astronics observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Astronics observations.
Experienced Astronics' investors use mean reversion as a complement to momentum analysis: momentum identifies the trend; mean reversion identifies when that trend has extended beyond sustainable levels.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
60.4863.7867.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
57.5478.5181.81
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
68.2576.0083.76
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
79.6987.5897.21
Details
The most actionable insights from Astronics analysis often emerge from peer comparison rather than standalone review. Astronics' metrics gain meaning when benchmarked against the best and worst performers in its sector.

After-Hype Price Density Analysis

This probability distribution for Astronics is built from Monte Carlo simulations that incorporate Astronics' historical volatility, mean reversion tendencies, and jump risk. The resulting distribution captures a broader range of Astronics outcomes than simple linear.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

The boundaries derived from Astronics' historical news analysis represent the range within which Astronics's price has typically settled after comparable headline events. Astronics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 60.48 and 67.08, respectively. Outcomes outside these boundaries are less common but not rare for Astronics.
Current Value
63.93
63.78
After-hype Price
67.08
Upside
The after-hype framework applied to Astronics assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.

Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Astronics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Astronics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Astronics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.38 
3.30
  0.15 
  0.04 
27 Events
7 Events
In 27 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
63.93
63.78
0.23 
846.15  
Notes

Hype Timeline

Astronics is presently traded for 63.93. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Astronics is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 63.78. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.38%. The volatility of related hype on Astronics is about 3113.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 63.97. About 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.46. Astronics last dividend was issued on the 25th of January 1994. The company completed a 1182:1000 stock split on 11th of October 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 27 days.
Cross-verify projections for Astronics using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astronics. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.
Our How to Buy Astronics Stock guide explains the steps to invest in Astronics stock.

Related Hype Analysis

Understanding Astronics' position within its competitive set helps investors assess whether news affecting a peer is a headwind or tailwind for Astronics. This distinction requires knowledge of the competitive dynamics specific to Astronics' industry.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CDRECadre Holdings 0.37 8 per month 0.00 -0.12 3.15 -4.56 18.91
VOYGVoyager Technologies-0.85 9 per month 4.92 0.06 8.11 -7.46 25.09
VVXV2X Inc-1.13 10 per month 2.00 0.15 3.81 -3.75 12.04
DCODucommun Incorporated 2.14 10 per month 1.60 0.26 4.61 -2.23 12.20
AMPXAmprius Technologies 0.24 9 per month 6.29 0.13 11.63 -8.39 28.89
KMTKennametal-0.22 10 per month 1.64 0.22 5.33 -2.38 15.44
PBIPitney Bowes 0.29 9 per month 1.85 0.06 2.57 -3.15 13.01
MVSTMicrovast Holdings-0.12 7 per month 0.00 -0.15 5.86 -5.49 18.37
EVEXEve Holding-0.06 7 per month 0.00 -0.22 4.95 -6.40 20.79
NSPInsperity 0.40 10 per month 0.00 -0.16 4.91 -8.93 23.30

Other Forecasting Options for Astronics

Understanding Astronics' price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering Astronics as a position. Astronics Stock price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.

Astronics Related Equities

The following equities are related to Astronics within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Astronics against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Astronics Market Strength Events

For traders and investors in Astronics, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the stock's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading Astronics shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.

Astronics Risk Indicators

Analyzing Astronics' risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Astronics' investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Astronics

Coverage intensity for Astronics matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Astronics Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Astronics matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding38.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments18.2 M

More Resources for Astronics Stock Analysis

Reviewing Astronics commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Financial ratios provide context for profitability, efficiency, and growth trends. Selected reports below provide context for Astronics Stock:
Cross-verify projections for Astronics using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astronics. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.
Our How to Buy Astronics Stock guide explains the steps to invest in Astronics stock.
Analysis related to Astronics should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
-0.07
 Earnings Share
0.81
 Revenue Per Share
24.324
 Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.151
 Return On Assets
0.0832
Investors evaluate Astronics using market value and book value, each describing different facets of the business. Astronics' market capitalization is 2.28 B. With a P/B ratio of 16.29, the market values Astronics well above its book equity. Enterprise value stands at 2.67 B. The intrinsic value concept focuses on underlying worth, which can diverge from market price and book value. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single context.
The concept of value for Astronics differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Astronics, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 8.47, a P/B ratio of 16.29, a profit margin of 3.41%, and ROE of 14.82%. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.