AptarGroup Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ATR Stock | USD 121.06 -2.91 -2.35% |
AptarGroup's Double Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. This page presents the model output and associated accuracy measures as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AptarGroup on the next trading day is expected to be 119.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 99.73.When AptarGroup prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any AptarGroup trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent AptarGroup observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing projections for AptarGroup are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AptarGroup on the next trading day is expected to be 119.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.69 , mean absolute percentage error of 5.31 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 99.73 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AptarGroup Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AptarGroup's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AptarGroup | AptarGroup Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting AptarGroup for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 117.53 and upside around 121.14 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AptarGroup stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AptarGroup stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2149 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6904 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0129 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 99.7322 |
Other Forecasting Options for AptarGroup
The price trajectory of AptarGroup is the primary concern for any investor assessing it as an opportunity. AptarGroup Stock price charts are filled with noise that can easily mislead uninformed investment decisions.AptarGroup Related Equities
The following equities are related to AptarGroup within the Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing AptarGroup against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AptarGroup Market Strength Events
Understanding the market strength of AptarGroup stock enables investors to assess the security's momentum and responsiveness to broader market forces. These indicators are essential tools for timing trades in AptarGroup with greater precision.
AptarGroup Risk Indicators
Reviewing AptarGroup's basic risk indicators is essential for investors who want to forecast its price and manage their investment risk effectively. This analysis helps identify the amount of risk involved in holding AptarGroup's and informs decisions about hedging and position.
| Mean Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Variance | 3.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.27 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.29 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AptarGroup
The amount of media and story coverage tied to AptarGroup can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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AptarGroup Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for AptarGroup is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 409.5 M |
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