Alphatec Holdings Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ATEC Stock | USD 13.05 0.45 3.57% |
This page provides Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Alphatec Holdings, calculated from historical daily prices. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alphatec Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 13.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.54.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Alphatec Holdings forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Alphatec Holdings observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Alphatec Holdings's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alphatec Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 13.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.62 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.54 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alphatec Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alphatec Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Alphatec Holdings uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 8.99 and upside near 17.11.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alphatec Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alphatec Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6321 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1069 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4187 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0264 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.54 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alphatec Holdings
The price movement of Alphatec is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. Alphatec Stock price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.Alphatec Holdings Related Equities
The following equities are related to Alphatec Holdings within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Alphatec Holdings against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alphatec Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Alphatec Holdings stock help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Alphatec Holdings.
| Accumulation Distribution | 80467.65 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.022727 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.04 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.43 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.45 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 40.86 |
Alphatec Holdings Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Alphatec Holdings is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Alphatec Holdings' investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.91 | |||
| Variance | 15.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alphatec Holdings
Story coverage around Alphatec Holdings often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Alphatec Holdings Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Alphatec Holdings can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 150.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 160.8 M |