ASE Industrial Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ASX Stock | USD 20.89 0.63 3.11% |
ASE Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of ASE Industrial's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.573 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.171 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.8686 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.2 | Wall Street Target Price 23.3147 |
Using ASE Industrial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ASE Industrial Holding from the perspective of ASE Industrial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ASE Industrial using ASE Industrial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ASE using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ASE Industrial's stock price.
ASE Industrial Short Interest
An investor who is long ASE Industrial may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ASE Industrial and may potentially protect profits, hedge ASE Industrial with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 12.4769 | Short Percent 0.0047 | Short Ratio 1.2 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.1 M | 50 Day MA 17.0296 |
ASE Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of ASE Industrial Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 20.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.23.ASE Industrial Holding Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ASE Industrial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ASE. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ASE can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ASE Industrial Holding. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ASE Industrial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ASE Industrial.
ASE Industrial Implied Volatility | 1.54 |
ASE Industrial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ASE Industrial Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ASE Industrial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ASE Industrial stock will not fluctuate a lot when ASE Industrial's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of ASE Industrial Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 20.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.23. ASE Industrial after-hype prediction price | USD 20.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASE Industrial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ASE contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ASE Industrial Holding will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0963% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With ASE Industrial trading at USD 20.89, that is roughly USD 0.0201 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ASE Industrial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ASE Industrial Holding options at the current volatility level of 1.54%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 ASE Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ASE Industrial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ASE Industrial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ASE Industrial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ASE Industrial's open interest, investors have to compare it to ASE Industrial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ASE Industrial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ASE. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
ASE Industrial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ASE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ASE using various technical indicators. When you analyze ASE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ASE Industrial Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of ASE Industrial Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 20.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ASE Industrial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ASE Industrial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ASE Industrial | ASE Industrial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
ASE Industrial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ASE Industrial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ASE Industrial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.12 and 22.38, respectively. We have considered ASE Industrial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ASE Industrial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ASE Industrial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5075 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6104 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0371 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.2341 |
Predictive Modules for ASE Industrial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASE Industrial Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASE Industrial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ASE Industrial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ASE Industrial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ASE Industrial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ASE Industrial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ASE Industrial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ASE Industrial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ASE Industrial's historical news coverage. ASE Industrial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.80 and 23.10, respectively. We have considered ASE Industrial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ASE Industrial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ASE Industrial Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
ASE Industrial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ASE Industrial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ASE Industrial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ASE Industrial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 2.13 | 0.06 | 1.64 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
20.89 | 20.95 | 0.29 |
|
ASE Industrial Hype Timeline
On the 8th of February ASE Industrial Holding is traded for 20.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.64. ASE is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 20.95 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.52%. The volatility of related hype on ASE Industrial is about 67.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.25. The company reported the last year's revenue of 648.92 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 40.66 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 114.19 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASE Industrial to cross-verify your projections.ASE Industrial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ASE Industrial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ASE Industrial's future price movements. Getting to know how ASE Industrial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ASE Industrial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MCHP | Microchip Technology | (2.41) | 9 per month | 1.97 | 0.09 | 6.14 | (3.52) | 16.50 | |
| ALAB | Astera Labs | (7.56) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 7.93 | (8.74) | 23.31 | |
| TER | Teradyne | 8.48 | 7 per month | 2.45 | 0.20 | 6.98 | (4.92) | 18.32 | |
| FI | Fiserv | 0.26 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.30 | (3.13) | 47.14 | |
| CTSH | Cognizant Technology Solutions | 0.09 | 9 per month | 2.14 | 0.01 | 2.80 | (2.17) | 15.16 | |
| HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise | (0.11) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.09 | (4.17) | 9.60 | |
| ERIC | Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson | (0.14) | 10 per month | 1.35 | 0.03 | 2.40 | (1.89) | 10.94 | |
| NOK | Nokia Corp ADR | 0.05 | 8 per month | 2.78 | (0.03) | 3.59 | (4.44) | 12.63 | |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | (29.58) | 8 per month | 2.35 | 0.1 | 4.41 | (4.47) | 11.04 | |
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer | (0.60) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.92 | (6.60) | 22.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for ASE Industrial
For every potential investor in ASE, whether a beginner or expert, ASE Industrial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ASE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ASE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ASE Industrial's price trends.ASE Industrial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ASE Industrial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ASE Industrial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ASE Industrial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ASE Industrial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ASE Industrial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ASE Industrial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ASE Industrial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ASE Industrial Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ASE Industrial Risk Indicators
The analysis of ASE Industrial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ASE Industrial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ase stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Variance | 5.03 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.23 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.74) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ASE Industrial
The number of cover stories for ASE Industrial depends on current market conditions and ASE Industrial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ASE Industrial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ASE Industrial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
ASE Industrial Short Properties
ASE Industrial's future price predictability will typically decrease when ASE Industrial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ASE Industrial Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ASE Industrial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ASE Industrial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 101.7 B |
Additional Tools for ASE Stock Analysis
When running ASE Industrial's price analysis, check to measure ASE Industrial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ASE Industrial is operating at the current time. Most of ASE Industrial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ASE Industrial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ASE Industrial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ASE Industrial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.