ASM International Pink Sheet Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ASMXF Stock  USD 819.02  21.43  2.69%   
As of today, the momentum strength indicator for ASM International is 0, signaling extreme oversold conditions. Readings below 20 are commonly associated with potential stabilization zones.
Momentum
 Impartial
 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of ASM International's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ASM International NV, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
This view frames how ASM International NV responds to recent headlines and peer activity within its market context.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ASM International NV on the next trading day is expected to be 814.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 17.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,003.
ASM International after-hype prediction price
    
  $ 819.02  
The sentiment view is a companion to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
  
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASM International to cross-verify projections for ASM International. The view provides historical context for the projection set.

ASM International Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ASM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ASM using various technical indicators. When you analyze ASM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for ASM International - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When ASM International prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in ASM International price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of ASM International.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ASM International NV on the next trading day is expected to be 814.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 17.00 , mean absolute percentage error of 564.80 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,003 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASM Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ASM International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest ASM International  ASM International Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for ASM International NV uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 811.60 on the downside to about 817.44 on the upside.
Market Value
819.02
811.60
Downside
814.52
Expected Value
817.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ASM International pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ASM International pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.5521
MADMean absolute deviation16.9968
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0221
SAESum of the absolute errors1002.8109
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past ASM International observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older ASM International NV observations.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASM International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
816.12819.02821.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
650.57653.47900.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
780.07830.43880.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ASM International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ASM International's peers to derive any actionable benefits.

After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ASM International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ASM International's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ASM International's historical news coverage.
Current Value
819.02
816.12
Downside
819.02
After-hype Price
821.92
Upside
This after-hype projection for ASM International NV uses a 3 months horizon to examine how price may behave after short-term sentiment effects dissipate. ASM International is Very Low at this time.

Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ASM International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ASM International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ASM International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.49 
2.92
  2.17 
  0.22 
4 Events
5 Events
In 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
819.02
819.02
0.00 
66.06  
Notes

Hype Timeline

ASM International is presently traded for 819.02. The company has historical hype elasticity of 2.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.22. ASM is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 66.06%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.49%. %. The volatility of related hype on ASM International is about 663.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 819.24. About 64.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.67. ASM International recorded earnings per share (EPS) of 6.33. The company had its last dividend issued on the 18th of May 2022. The firm completed a 3:1 stock split on 18th of March 1996. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 4 days.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASM International to cross-verify projections for ASM International. The view provides historical context for the projection set.

Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ASM International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ASM International's future price movements. Getting to know how ASM International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
DSCSYDisco Corp ADR 0.00 0 per month 3.06 0.17 6.71 -4.73 19.03
DISPFDisco-0.32 26 per month 2.37 0.19 10.81 -4.58 23.06
NTDTYNTT Data Corp-1.82 15 per month 4.95 0.05 13.10 -10.42 32.19
HXGBFHexagon AB-1.82 4 per month 0.00 -0.06 2.29 -3.67 10.88
HXGBYHexagon AB ADR 0.00 0 per month 0.00 -0.06 2.19 -2.28 8.36
STMEFSTMicroelectronics NV 0.00 0 per month 0.75 0.21 4.75 -2.27 10.75
TTDKFTDK Corporation 4.42 11 per month 0.00 -0.03 7.27 -10.24 27.41
ERIXFTelefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson 0.00 0 per month 1.12 0.13 4.16 -1.91 18.38
TTDKYTDK Corp ADR 0.02 42 per month 0.00 -0.05 5.08 -5.14 20.82
LSRCFLasertec 3.92 3 per month 0.00  0.16 6.36 -0.04 33.97

Other Forecasting Options for ASM International

For every potential investor in ASM, whether a beginner or expert, ASM International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.

ASM International Related Equities

The following equities are related to ASM International within the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ASM International against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ASM International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ASM International pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ASM International shares will generate the highest return on.

ASM International Risk Indicators

The analysis of ASM International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ASM International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ASM International

The amount of media and story coverage tied to ASM International NV can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.

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More Resources for ASM Pink Sheet Analysis

Other Information on Investing in ASM Pink Sheet

Financial ratios for ASM International help frame valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare ASM across valuation measures and peers.