AerSale Corp Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ASLE Stock | USD 6.28 0.00 0.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for AerSale Corp is derived from the equity's published trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AerSale Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.19.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting AerSale Corp forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent AerSale Corp observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for AerSale Corp are Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AerSale Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.19 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AerSale Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AerSale Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for AerSale Corp uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 4.04 on the downside to about 8.51 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AerSale Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AerSale Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.6348 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0146 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1032 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0144 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.195 |
Other Forecasting Options for AerSale Corp
For both new and experienced investors in AerSale, the ability to analyze AerSale Corp's price movement is a fundamental investment skill. Price chart noise in AerSale Stock can create false signals and mislead investment decisions.AerSale Corp Related Equities
The following equities are related to AerSale Corp within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing AerSale Corp against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AerSale Corp Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for AerSale Corp provides context for understanding the momentum dynamics of the stock in real time. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions in AerSale Corp for maximum return potential.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0188 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.34 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.32 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.12 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.06 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 35.02 |
AerSale Corp Risk Indicators
Properly assessing AerSale Corp's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with AerSale Corp's allows investors to make better-informed decisions about accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Variance | 4.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AerSale Corp
Coverage intensity for AerSale Corp matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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AerSale Corp Short Properties
A short-interest review of AerSale Corp provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.4 M |