Ashtead Group Pink Sheet Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ASHTF Stock | USD 70.01 0.00 0.00% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
This section frames Ashtead Group plc response to recent headlines in a peer context.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ashtead Group plc on the next trading day is expected to be 69.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 96.63.Ashtead Group after-hype prediction price | $ 70.01 |
This view helps relate attention signals to forecasting and technical indicators plus earnings context.
Ashtead |
Ashtead Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ashtead price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ashtead using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ashtead charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ashtead Group plc on the next trading day is expected to be 69.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.64 , mean absolute percentage error of 5.15 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 96.63 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ashtead Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ashtead Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ashtead Group | Ashtead Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Ashtead Group plc uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ashtead Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ashtead Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3251 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6379 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0235 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 96.6347 |
The degree to which Ashtead Group's exhibits mean reversion depends on how efficiently the market prices new information. In highly covered equities, the mean reversion window tends to be shorter.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The after-hype price distribution for Ashtead Group helps investors understand how much of Ashtead Group's predicted return comes from the central scenario versus tail outcomes. Strategies that rely on tail events for Ashtead Group are inherently more speculative.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical news patterns for Ashtead Group reveal how the market has historically digested different types of information about Ashtead Group's business and market environment. Ashtead Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 67.08 and 72.94, respectively. The model extrapolates these patterns to estimate likely price boundaries following the next significant.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Ashtead Group plc assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ashtead Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ashtead Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ashtead Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events | 0 Events | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
70.01 | 70.01 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
Ashtead Group plc is presently traded for 70.01. The company stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Ashtead is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ashtead Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 70.01. About 60.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Ashtead Group was presently reported as 12.2. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.56. Ashtead Group plc last dividend was issued on the 12th of January 2023. The company completed a 709:654 stock split on 9th of August 2006. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ashtead Group provides a cross-check on projections for Ashtead Group. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Peer hype analysis helps investors build a more complete picture of Ashtead Group's competitive environment by quantifying the market's sensitivity to news across all major players in Ashtead Group's sector.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EJPRY | East Japan Railway | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 2.50 | -3.03 | 9.15 | |
| FUJIY | FUJIFILM Holdings Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 2.22 | -3.85 | 9.01 | |
| EJPRF | East Japan Railway | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 3.06 | -4.55 | 21.30 | |
| WTKWY | Wolters Kluwer NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.13 | 4.21 | -3.52 | 18.33 | |
| ICAGY | International Consolidated Airlines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.04 | 3.99 | -3.89 | 11.55 | |
| WOLTF | Wolters Kluwer NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.12 | 4.44 | -5.45 | 15.43 | |
| FUJIF | FUJIFILM Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -5.48 | 22.42 | |
| PRYMF | Prysmian SpA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.52 | 0.09 | 5.10 | -3.91 | 12.05 | |
| PRYMY | Prysmian SPA ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.99 | 0.11 | 3.85 | -3.33 | 9.82 | |
| CKHUF | CK Hutchison Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.04 | 0.03 | 5.96 | -6.12 | 18.21 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ashtead Group
The price trajectory of Ashtead is the primary concern for any investor assessing it as an opportunity. Ashtead Pink Sheet price charts are filled with noise that can easily mislead uninformed investment decisions.Ashtead Group Related Equities
The following equities are related to Ashtead Group within the Rental & Leasing Services space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Ashtead Group against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ashtead Group Market Strength Events
Understanding the market strength of Ashtead Group pink sheet enables investors to assess the security's momentum and responsiveness to broader market forces. These indicators are essential tools for timing trades in Ashtead Group plc with greater precision.
Ashtead Group Risk Indicators
Reviewing Ashtead Group's basic risk indicators is essential for investors who want to forecast its price and manage their investment risk effectively. This analysis helps identify the amount of risk involved in holding Ashtead Group's and informs decisions about hedging and position.
| Mean Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.94 | |||
| Variance | 8.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.66 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ashtead Group
Coverage intensity for Ashtead Group plc matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Story coverage on Macroaxis is built for readers who approach markets from different levels of experience but share the same need for disciplined investment context. Used well, these stories become part of a broader workflow built around idea generation, validation, and risk-adjusted portfolio design.
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Ashtead Group financial ratios provide valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare Ashtead across valuation measures in a consistent way.