LEBENTHAL LISANTI Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ASCGX Fund  USD 22.98  0.23  1.01%   
LEBENTHAL LISANTI's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lebenthal Lisanti Small on the next trading day is expected to be 22.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.14.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past LEBENTHAL LISANTI observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Lebenthal Lisanti Small observations. LEBENTHAL LISANTI's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Triple exponential smoothing for LEBENTHAL LISANTI - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When LEBENTHAL LISANTI prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in LEBENTHAL LISANTI price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Lebenthal Lisanti Small.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lebenthal Lisanti Small on the next trading day is expected to be 22.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.14 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.14 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LEBENTHAL Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LEBENTHAL LISANTI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

Forecasting Lebenthal Lisanti Small for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Market Value
22.98
22.92
Expected Value
24.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LEBENTHAL LISANTI mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LEBENTHAL LISANTI mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0567
MADMean absolute deviation0.3023
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0129
SAESum of the absolute errors18.1358
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past LEBENTHAL LISANTI observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Lebenthal Lisanti Small observations.

Other Forecasting Options for LEBENTHAL LISANTI

Analyzing LEBENTHAL LISANTI's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in LEBENTHAL LISANTI's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.

LEBENTHAL LISANTI Related Equities

Sizing up LEBENTHAL LISANTI against these stocks within the Small Growth space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Profit comparisons show whether LEBENTHAL LISANTI earns above or below average returns next to its peers.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

LEBENTHAL LISANTI Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for LEBENTHAL LISANTI mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade LEBENTHAL LISANTI.

LEBENTHAL LISANTI Risk Indicators

Assessing LEBENTHAL LISANTI's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting LEBENTHAL LISANTI's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for LEBENTHAL LISANTI

A coverage review of Lebenthal Lisanti Small shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.

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