ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ARTKX Fund | USD 53.11 -0.50 -0.93% |
ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data reflects the model's output when applied to available daily price observations. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Artisan International Value on the next trading day is expected to be 52.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.50.When Artisan International Value prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Artisan International Value trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL's Double Exponential Smoothing reference values are drawn from available trading data and are presented for informational reference only. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Artisan International Value on the next trading day is expected to be 52.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.20 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.50 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ARTISAN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Artisan International Value focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 52.14 and upside around 53.73 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0789 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.325 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0059 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.4984 |
Other Forecasting Options for ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL
Understanding ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL's price movement is a critical first step for any investor considering ARTISAN. The noise present in ARTISAN Mutual Fund price charts can easily mislead investors who rely solely on visual inspection.ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL Related Equities
The following equities are related to ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL within the Foreign Large Blend space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL mutual fund is positioned relative to prevailing market trends. Investors use these tools to determine the best times to initiate or close positions in Artisan International Value.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 53.11 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 53.11 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.25 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.50 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.53 |
ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL Risk Indicators
The analysis of ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL's risk metrics is one of the most important steps in accurately projecting its future price. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL's and determining how best to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5579 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9206 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7629 | |||
| Variance | 0.582 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9327 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8475 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.50 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL
Coverage intensity for Artisan International Value matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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