Array Technologies Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ARRY Stock | USD 7.73 0.49 6.77% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing reference data for Array Technologies is derived from the equity's published trading history. The resulting forecast and deviation statistics are presented as reference data for informational context. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes. All values shown are derived from publicly available market data.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Array Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 7.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.26.When Array Technologies prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Array Technologies trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Array Technologies observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Array Technologies reflects Double Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Array Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 7.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.40 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.26 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Array Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Array Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Array Technologies | Array Technologies Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Array Technologies' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 1.54 on the downside to about 13.59 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Array Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Array Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.051 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4112 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0457 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.2595 |
Other Forecasting Options for Array Technologies
Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Array Stock price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Array occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Array Technologies' historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves. A volume spike without a corresponding price move can signal accumulation or distribution ahead of a directional breakout.Array Technologies Related Equities
Sizing up Array Technologies against these stocks within the Industrials space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Looking at Array Technologies' pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag Array Technologies across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps. This peer set gives the context needed for a well-rounded view of Array Technologies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Array Technologies Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for Array Technologies provides context for understanding stock momentum dynamics. Tracking these indicators helps identify periods where trading Array Technologies is likely to be most rewarding. These tools are essential for timing trades in Array Technologies with a quantitative framework. Market strength indicators for Array Technologies are most useful when viewed as part of a broader analytical framework.
| Accumulation Distribution | 241438.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.139535 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.07 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.56 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.61 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.42 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.49 |
Array Technologies Risk Indicators
Properly assessing Array Technologies' risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Array Technologies'. Analyzing Array Technologies' risk indicators provides a critical input for investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Array Technologies' investment, investors can make more informed decisions about hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 3.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.89 | |||
| Variance | 34.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Array Technologies
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Array Technologies can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Array Technologies Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Array Technologies matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 152.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 244.4 M |