Arctic Paper Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ARP Stock  SEK 20.05  0.27  1.37%   
Arctic Paper SA's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arctic Paper SA on the next trading day is expected to be 20.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.07.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Arctic Paper observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Arctic Paper SA observations. All Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Arctic Paper SA are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices.
Triple exponential smoothing for Arctic Paper - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Arctic Paper prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Arctic Paper price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Arctic Paper SA.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arctic Paper SA on the next trading day is expected to be 20.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.20 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.07 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arctic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arctic Paper's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Arctic Paper  Arctic Paper Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Arctic Paper's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 18.05 and upside around 22.00 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
20.05
20.02
Expected Value
22.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arctic Paper stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arctic Paper stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0648
MADMean absolute deviation0.3012
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0141
SAESum of the absolute errors18.0694
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Arctic Paper observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Arctic Paper SA observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Arctic Paper

Bollinger Bands applied to Arctic Stock price data measure how far Arctic has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Arctic Paper's price data.

Arctic Paper Related Equities

Investors studying Arctic Paper often look at related stocks within the Paper & Paper Products space to gauge pricing and results. Growth rate gaps between Arctic Paper and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. How Arctic Paper ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Arctic Paper Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Arctic Paper SA, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around Arctic Paper SA positions.

Arctic Paper Risk Indicators

Analyzing Arctic Paper's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for arctic stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Arctic Paper's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Arctic Paper

A coverage review of Arctic Paper SA shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.

Arctic Paper Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Arctic Paper SA matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding69.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments265.3 M

Additional Tools for Arctic Stock Analysis

Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets