Alliance Resource Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ARLP Stock | USD 28.71 0.76 2.72% |
This reference view applies Triple Exponential Smoothing to Alliance Resource Partners's historical closing prices. Alliance Resource Partners's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data. Alliance Resource Partners's forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. Mean absolute deviation and related metrics help quantify forecast uncertainty for Alliance Resource Partners.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alliance Resource Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 28.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.13.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Alliance Resource observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Alliance Resource Partners observations. All forecast values on this page for Alliance Resource Partners are Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alliance Resource Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 28.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.13 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.13 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alliance Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alliance Resource's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alliance Resource | Alliance Resource Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Alliance Resource Partners focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 27.26 on the downside to about 30.03 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alliance Resource stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alliance Resource stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0616 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2903 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0115 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.127 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alliance Resource
Volume-weighted price analysis for Alliance Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in Alliance momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing Alliance Resource's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in Alliance Stock price action.Alliance Resource Related Equities
Checking Alliance Resource against related firms within the Energy space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Growth rate gaps between Alliance Resource and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alliance Resource Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of Alliance Resource stock allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. Monitoring these indicators highlights periods where Alliance Resource Partners trading conditions shift meaningfully. These metrics are particularly useful when Alliance Resource stock shows divergence from broader market trends. Regularly reviewing Alliance Resource Partners strength signals helps maintain a structured approach to position management.
Alliance Resource Risk Indicators
Understanding Alliance Resource's risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Alliance Resource's investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure. Reviewing Alliance Resource's basic risk indicators is essential for managing investment risk effectively. The risk-return trade-off for alliance stock becomes clearer when Alliance Resource's risk indicators are properly assessed.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9603 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6404 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Variance | 1.71 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4101 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.19 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alliance Resource
Coverage intensity for Alliance Resource Partners matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Alliance Resource Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Alliance Resource Partners is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 128.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 71.2 M |
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