Aris Mining Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| ARIS Stock | CAD 25.47 -0.48 -1.85% |
The forecast reference data for Aris Mining on this page is generated using Simple Moving Average applied to historical price observations. Projected values and error measures are included as reference material.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aris Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 25.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.98.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Aris Mining price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Aris Mining. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average reference values for Aris Mining are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aris Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 25.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.45 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.98 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aris Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aris Mining's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aris Mining | Aris Mining Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Aris Mining uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 21.39 and upside around 29.55 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aris Mining stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aris Mining stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6426 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0997 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8997 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0348 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 53.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aris Mining
Investors at all stages of experience who consider Aris must develop an understanding of Aris Mining's price dynamics. The noise embedded in Aris Stock price charts can create misleading signals and skew investment decisions.Aris Mining Related Equities
The following equities are related to Aris Mining within the Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Aris Mining against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aris Mining Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Aris Mining stock give investors a structured view of the security's momentum relative to the overall market. Using these indicators, traders can refine their timing when entering or exiting positions in Aris Mining.
Aris Mining Risk Indicators
Evaluating Aris Mining's risk indicators is an important step in accurately forecasting its price and assessing the suitability of an investment. Understanding the risk profile of Aris Mining's allows investors to make more informed decisions about position sizing and risk.
| Mean Deviation | 2.84 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.94 | |||
| Variance | 15.49 | |||
| Downside Variance | 25.91 | |||
| Semi Variance | 21.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.70 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aris Mining
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Aris Mining can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Aris Mining Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Aris Mining matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 191.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 391.2 M |
More Resources for Aris Stock Analysis
A comprehensive view of Aris Mining starts with financial statements and ratio context. Aris Mining's financial ratios translate raw accounting data into comparable profitability and efficiency signals. Selected reports below provide context for Aris Stock:Cross-verify projections for Aris Mining using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aris Mining. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set. Ready to invest in Aris Stock? Our How to Invest in Aris Mining guide walks you through the process.Aris Mining P/E of 6.2 alongside ROE at 6.28% frames the starting point - the resources below add portfolio-level context that single-security analysis cannot provide alone. Combining those profitability and valuation signals with the risk, diversification, and comparative tools below produces a more informed Basic Materials position-sizing decision. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.