Arcturus Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ARCT Stock | USD 6.63 -0.09 -1.34% |
The Simple Regression forecast reference data for Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 7.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.06.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. All Simple Regression forecast figures shown for Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 7.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.28 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.06 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arcturus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arcturus Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arcturus Therapeutics | Arcturus Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 4.28 and upside around 10.91 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arcturus Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arcturus Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8521 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4436 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0625 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.0595 |
Other Forecasting Options for Arcturus Therapeutics
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering Arcturus needs to understand the dynamics of Arcturus Therapeutics' price movement. Price charts for Arcturus Stock contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.Arcturus Therapeutics Related Equities
The following equities are related to Arcturus Therapeutics within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Arcturus Therapeutics against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arcturus Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Arcturus Therapeutics enables investors to understand how the stock performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings.
Arcturus Therapeutics Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Arcturus Therapeutics' key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process quantifies the risk associated with Arcturus Therapeutics' and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.39 | |||
| Variance | 11.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Arcturus Therapeutics
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Arcturus Therapeutics Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 230.9 M |
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