ARB IOT Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

ARBB Stock   5.81  0.20  3.33%   
ARB Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ARB IOT stock prices and determine the direction of ARB IOT Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of ARB IOT's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength indicator of ARB IOT's share price is approaching 48. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ARB IOT, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 48

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of ARB IOT's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ARB IOT Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting ARB IOT's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.79)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.97)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(1.16)
Wall Street Target Price
20
Quarterly Revenue Growth
3.317
Using ARB IOT hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ARB IOT Group from the perspective of ARB IOT response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

ARB Relative Strength Index

The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ARB IOT Group on the next trading day is expected to be 6.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.65.

ARB IOT Group Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to ARB IOT's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ARB. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ARB can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ARB IOT Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ARB IOT's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ARB IOT.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ARB IOT Group on the next trading day is expected to be 6.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.65.

ARB IOT after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 5.81  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ARB IOT to cross-verify your projections.

ARB IOT Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ARB price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ARB using various technical indicators. When you analyze ARB charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
ARB IOT simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for ARB IOT Group are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as ARB IOT Group prices get older.

ARB IOT Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ARB IOT Group on the next trading day is expected to be 6.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ARB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ARB IOT's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ARB IOT Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ARB IOT  ARB IOT Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

ARB IOT Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ARB IOT's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ARB IOT's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.06 and 13.70, respectively. We have considered ARB IOT's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.81
6.06
Expected Value
13.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ARB IOT stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ARB IOT stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.3831
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0802
MADMean absolute deviation0.2942
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0479
SAESum of the absolute errors17.65
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting ARB IOT Group forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent ARB IOT observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for ARB IOT

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ARB IOT Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.295.8113.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.265.1212.71
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
18.2020.0022.20
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ARB IOT. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ARB IOT's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ARB IOT's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ARB IOT Group.

ARB IOT After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ARB IOT at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ARB IOT or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ARB IOT, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

ARB IOT Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ARB IOT's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ARB IOT's historical news coverage. ARB IOT's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.29 and 13.40, respectively. We have considered ARB IOT's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
5.81
5.81
After-hype Price
13.40
Upside
ARB IOT is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ARB IOT Group is based on 3 months time horizon.

ARB IOT Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ARB IOT is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ARB IOT backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ARB IOT, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.31 
7.64
  0.10 
  0.05 
6 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.81
5.81
0.00 
2,388  
Notes

ARB IOT Hype Timeline

ARB IOT Group is presently traded for 5.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. ARB is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.31%. %. The volatility of related hype on ARB IOT is about 4687.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.86. About 35.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.21. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ARB IOT Group recorded a loss per share of 10.29. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:15 split on the 2nd of June 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ARB IOT to cross-verify your projections.

ARB IOT Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ARB IOT's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ARB IOT's future price movements. Getting to know how ARB IOT's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ARB IOT may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SONMSonim Technologies 0.06 8 per month 0.00 (0.08) 15.25 (13.45) 38.14 
SMTKSmartKem Common Stock 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.15) 10.40 (14.84) 33.05 
BHATBlue Hat Interactive 0.1 7 per month 0.00 (0.19) 8.66 (8.66) 23.93 
SOSSOS Limited 0.00 8 per month 6.29 (0.0006) 9.01 (12.60) 65.45 
WATTEnergous(0.28)8 per month 4.27 (0.0008) 9.57 (6.94) 24.57 
ORKTOrangekloud Technology Class 1.39 1 per month 9.25  0.05  7.59 (13.59) 189.93 
GLEGlobal Engine Group(0.05)8 per month 0.00 (0.10) 11.63 (10.20) 53.24 
AIXIXIAO I American 0.04 6 per month 0.00 (0.33) 8.43 (10.71) 45.03 
CLROClearOne 0.36 9 per month 4.80  0.08  12.72 (8.82) 32.74 
SYNXSilynxcom 0.01 9 per month 0.00 (0.06) 14.44 (12.12) 34.56 

Other Forecasting Options for ARB IOT

For every potential investor in ARB, whether a beginner or expert, ARB IOT's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ARB Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ARB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ARB IOT's price trends.

ARB IOT Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ARB IOT stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ARB IOT could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ARB IOT by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ARB IOT Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ARB IOT stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ARB IOT shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ARB IOT stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ARB IOT Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ARB IOT Risk Indicators

The analysis of ARB IOT's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ARB IOT's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ARB IOT

The number of cover stories for ARB IOT depends on current market conditions and ARB IOT's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ARB IOT is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ARB IOT's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

ARB IOT Short Properties

ARB IOT's future price predictability will typically decrease when ARB IOT's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ARB IOT Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ARB IOT's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ARB IOT's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments10 M
When determining whether ARB IOT Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of ARB IOT's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Arb Iot Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Arb Iot Group Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ARB IOT to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ARB IOT. If investors know ARB will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive ARB IOT assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.79)
Earnings Share
(10.29)
Revenue Per Share
111.78
Quarterly Revenue Growth
3.317
Return On Assets
(0.12)
ARB IOT Group's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on ARB's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate ARB IOT's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since ARB IOT's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that ARB IOT's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether ARB IOT represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, ARB IOT's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.