Algonquin Power Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| AQN Stock | CAD 8.94 0.22 2.52% |
Algonquin Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Algonquin Power's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Algonquin Power's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Algonquin Power fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Algonquin Power's share price is at 58. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Algonquin Power, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0675 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.3171 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.3647 | Wall Street Target Price 8.0966 |
Using Algonquin Power hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Algonquin Power Utilities from the perspective of Algonquin Power response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Algonquin Power Utilities on the next trading day is expected to be 8.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.13. Algonquin Power after-hype prediction price | CAD 8.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Algonquin |
Algonquin Power Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Algonquin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Algonquin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Algonquin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Algonquin Power Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Algonquin Power Utilities on the next trading day is expected to be 8.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Algonquin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Algonquin Power's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Algonquin Power Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Algonquin Power | Algonquin Power Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Algonquin Power Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Algonquin Power's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Algonquin Power's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.19 and 10.55, respectively. We have considered Algonquin Power's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Algonquin Power stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Algonquin Power stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3178 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1989 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0236 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.1337 |
Predictive Modules for Algonquin Power
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Algonquin Power Utilities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Algonquin Power After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Algonquin Power at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Algonquin Power or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Algonquin Power, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Algonquin Power Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Algonquin Power's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Algonquin Power's historical news coverage. Algonquin Power's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.25 and 10.61, respectively. We have considered Algonquin Power's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Algonquin Power is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Algonquin Power Utilities is based on 3 months time horizon.
Algonquin Power Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Algonquin Power is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Algonquin Power backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Algonquin Power, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.68 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.94 | 8.93 | 0.11 |
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Algonquin Power Hype Timeline
Algonquin Power Utilities is presently traded for 8.94on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Algonquin is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 8.93. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Algonquin Power is about 1737.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.92. About 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.1. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Algonquin Power Utilities has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.41. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Algonquin Power to cross-verify your projections.Algonquin Power Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Algonquin Power's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Algonquin Power's future price movements. Getting to know how Algonquin Power's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Algonquin Power may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ACO-X | ATCO | (0.09) | 7 per month | 0.63 | 0.16 | 1.56 | (1.13) | 4.78 | |
| NPI | Northland Power | 0.46 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.30 | (2.90) | 28.74 | |
| BEPC | Brookfield Renewable Corp | 1.05 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.84 | (2.60) | 7.67 | |
| CU | Canadian Utilities Limited | (0.07) | 5 per month | 0.37 | 0.18 | 1.45 | (0.98) | 5.01 | |
| TA | TransAlta Corp | (0.25) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.53 | (5.06) | 14.79 | |
| BIPC | Brookfield Infrastructure Corp | (1.54) | 7 per month | 1.16 | 0.02 | 2.19 | (2.12) | 7.62 | |
| BLX | Boralex | (0.52) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.01 | (3.55) | 7.74 | |
| RGSI | Rockpoint Gas Storage | 0.14 | 2 per month | 1.36 | 0.05 | 4.27 | (2.50) | 9.73 | |
| GIP | Green Impact Partners | (0.05) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 4.30 | (3.72) | 15.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Algonquin Power
For every potential investor in Algonquin, whether a beginner or expert, Algonquin Power's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Algonquin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Algonquin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Algonquin Power's price trends.Algonquin Power Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Algonquin Power stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Algonquin Power could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Algonquin Power by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Algonquin Power Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Algonquin Power stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Algonquin Power shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Algonquin Power stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Algonquin Power Utilities entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Algonquin Power Risk Indicators
The analysis of Algonquin Power's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Algonquin Power's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting algonquin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9829 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Variance | 2.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.966 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Algonquin Power
The number of cover stories for Algonquin Power depends on current market conditions and Algonquin Power's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Algonquin Power is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Algonquin Power's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Algonquin Power Short Properties
Algonquin Power's future price predictability will typically decrease when Algonquin Power's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Algonquin Power Utilities often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Algonquin Power's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Algonquin Power's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 734 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 34.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Algonquin Power to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.