Aqua Metals Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AQMS Stock | USD 4.30 0.05 1.18% |
This page provides Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Aqua Metals, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from Aqua Metals's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aqua Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 4.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.54.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Aqua Metals forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Aqua Metals observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference information for Aqua Metals is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aqua Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 4.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.54 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aqua Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aqua Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
Forecasting Aqua Metals for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 0.04 and upside around 8.70 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aqua Metals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aqua Metals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.2332 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0177 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.159 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.032 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.54 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aqua Metals
The autocorrelation structure of Aqua Metals' daily returns reveals whether Aqua exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in Aqua Stock price data.Aqua Metals Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Aqua Metals within the Industrials space and serve as useful points for comparison. Checking Aqua Metals against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors. This type of review is most useful when done often to track how positions shift over time.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aqua Metals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Aqua Metals stock help assess momentum and resilience across environments. Investors can use these indicators to make informed decisions about market timing when trading Aqua Metals.
Aqua Metals Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Aqua Metals is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aqua Metals' investment and either accepting or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 3.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.61 | |||
| Variance | 21.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aqua Metals
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Aqua Metals can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Aqua Metals Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Aqua Metals can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 642 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.1 M |
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