Applovin Corp Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| APP Stock | USD 535.44 11.03 2.10% |
Applovin Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Applovin Corp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Applovin Corp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Applovin Corp fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength indicator of Applovin Corp's share price is approaching 38. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Applovin Corp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 38
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.959 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.8599 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.3494 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.5732 | Wall Street Target Price 745.92 |
Using Applovin Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Applovin Corp from the perspective of Applovin Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Applovin Corp using Applovin Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Applovin using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Applovin Corp's stock price.
Applovin Corp Short Interest
An investor who is long Applovin Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Applovin Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Applovin Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 488.4221 | Short Percent 0.0534 | Short Ratio 4.51 | Shares Short Prior Month 15.2 M | 50 Day MA 629.5573 |
Applovin Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Applovin Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 535.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 17.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,034.Applovin Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Applovin Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Applovin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Applovin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Applovin Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Applovin Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Applovin Corp.
Applovin Corp Implied Volatility | 0.68 |
Applovin Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Applovin Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Applovin Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Applovin Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Applovin Corp's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Applovin Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 535.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 17.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,034. Applovin Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 511.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applovin Corp to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Applovin contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Applovin Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0425% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Applovin Corp trading at USD 535.44, that is roughly USD 0.23 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Applovin Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Applovin Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.68%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Applovin Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Applovin Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Applovin Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Applovin Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Applovin Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Applovin Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Applovin Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Applovin. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Applovin Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Applovin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Applovin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Applovin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Applovin Corp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Applovin Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 535.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 17.24, mean absolute percentage error of 496.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,034.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applovin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applovin Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Applovin Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Applovin Corp | Applovin Corp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Applovin Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Applovin Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Applovin Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 531.95 and 538.93, respectively. We have considered Applovin Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applovin Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applovin Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.4812 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.596 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 17.241 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0276 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1034.46 |
Predictive Modules for Applovin Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applovin Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Applovin Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Applovin Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Applovin Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Applovin Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Applovin Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Applovin Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Applovin Corp's historical news coverage. Applovin Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 508.22 and 576.85, respectively. We have considered Applovin Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Applovin Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Applovin Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Applovin Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Applovin Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Applovin Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Applovin Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 3.49 | 10.50 | 0.51 | 10 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
535.44 | 511.70 | 2.42 |
|
Applovin Corp Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Applovin Corp is traded for 535.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -10.5, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.51. Applovin is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 511.7. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 6.32%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -2.42%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Applovin Corp is about 131.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 534.93. About 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.13. Applovin Corp recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.5. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applovin Corp to cross-verify your projections.Applovin Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Applovin Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Applovin Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Applovin Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Applovin Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WDAY | Workday | (6.14) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 3.03 | (4.02) | 11.69 | |
| SNOW | Snowflake | (0.30) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.44 | (4.34) | 16.09 | |
| AI | C3 Ai Inc | (0.36) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 4.45 | (4.92) | 11.16 | |
| ZM | Zoom Video Communications | (0.62) | 10 per month | 1.75 | 0.01 | 3.43 | (3.14) | 13.95 | |
| INTU | Intuit Inc | (8.81) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.38 | (3.37) | 10.42 | |
| MNDY | MondayCom | (2.15) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 3.21 | (6.07) | 17.07 | |
| TEAM | Atlassian Corp Plc | (10.67) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.93 | (5.84) | 13.95 | |
| DDOG | Datadog | (2.27) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.43 | (3.52) | 32.62 | |
| GTLB | Gitlab Inc | (0.95) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.70 | (3.90) | 18.17 | |
| DOCU | DocuSign | 0.55 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.08 | (4.99) | 12.28 | |
| BILL | Bill Com Holdings | (0.31) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.55 | (4.27) | 18.79 | |
| ASAN | Asana Inc | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.44 | (5.47) | 15.87 | |
| SHOP | Shopify | (5.58) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.06 | (5.93) | 12.99 | |
| FROG | Jfrog | 0.48 | 8 per month | 2.41 | 0.07 | 6.25 | (4.10) | 31.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for Applovin Corp
For every potential investor in Applovin, whether a beginner or expert, Applovin Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Applovin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Applovin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Applovin Corp's price trends.Applovin Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Applovin Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Applovin Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Applovin Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Applovin Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applovin Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applovin Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applovin Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applovin Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 343688.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3248 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 541.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 539.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.43) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 11.03 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.42 |
Applovin Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Applovin Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Applovin Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting applovin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.54 | |||
| Variance | 12.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Applovin Corp
The number of cover stories for Applovin Corp depends on current market conditions and Applovin Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Applovin Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Applovin Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Applovin Corp Short Properties
Applovin Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Applovin Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Applovin Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Applovin Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applovin Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 347.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 741.4 M |
Additional Tools for Applovin Stock Analysis
When running Applovin Corp's price analysis, check to measure Applovin Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applovin Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Applovin Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applovin Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applovin Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applovin Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.