Alpha Pro Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| APL Stock | EUR 3.90 -0.04 -1.02% |
This reference page presents Simple Regression forecast data for Alpha Pro Tech. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Alpha Pro Tech on the next trading day is expected to be 4.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.56.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Alpha Pro Tech historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. This Simple Regression forecast data for Alpha Pro Tech is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Alpha Pro Tech on the next trading day is expected to be 4.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.56 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alpha Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alpha Pro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alpha Pro | Alpha Pro Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Alpha Pro Tech uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alpha Pro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alpha Pro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.5417 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1239 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0301 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.5593 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alpha Pro
Alpha Pro's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Alpha often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration. Gap analysis of Alpha Stock data examines overnight jumps between Alpha Pro's closing and opening prices.Alpha Pro Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Alpha Pro within the Industrials space and serve as useful points for comparison. Profit comparisons show whether Alpha Pro earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Investors should look for peers that steadily beat or lag Alpha Pro across many periods.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alpha Pro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Alpha Pro stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Alpha Pro Tech. These indicators can identify periods when trading Alpha Pro Tech may offer more favorable risk-reward conditions.
Alpha Pro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alpha Pro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Alpha Pro's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure. The analysis of Alpha Pro's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for managing investment risk.
| Mean Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Variance | 4.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.98 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.12 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alpha Pro
Coverage intensity for Alpha Pro Tech matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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More Resources for Alpha Stock Analysis
A structured review of Alpha Pro Tech begins with its financial statements and overall trends. Supporting reports for Alpha Pro Tech Stock are presented below:Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alpha Pro offers a historical basis for evaluating projection assumptions about Alpha Pro. At P/E 10.04 and ROE 5.66%, Alpha Pro analysis should be read alongside other portfolio and risk tools before adjusting capital allocation. Those return and profitability levels shape the investment picture - the supplemental tools help investors decide if they are sustainable. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.