American Public Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| APEI Stock | USD 41.78 0.49 1.16% |
American Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of American Public's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of American Public's stock price is under 61. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 2nd of February 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling American, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.5 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.55 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.86 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.73 | Wall Street Target Price 44.5 |
Using American Public hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Public Education from the perspective of American Public response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Public using American Public's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Public's stock price.
American Public Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in American Public's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards American. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of American Public stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 32.7292 | Short Percent 0.1133 | Short Ratio 6.79 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.7 M | 50 Day MA 37.9812 |
American Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Public Education on the next trading day is expected to be 41.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.58.American Public Education Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Public's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Public Education. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Public's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Public.
American Public Implied Volatility | 0.82 |
American Public's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Public Education stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Public's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Public stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Public's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Public Education on the next trading day is expected to be 41.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.58. American Public after-hype prediction price | USD 41.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Public to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Public Education will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0513% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With American Public trading at USD 41.78, that is roughly USD 0.0214 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Public's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Public Education options at the current volatility level of 0.82%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 American Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American Public's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in American Public's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for American Public stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American Public's open interest, investors have to compare it to American Public's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American Public is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
American Public Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Public Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Public Education on the next trading day is expected to be 41.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Public's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Public Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Public | American Public Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
American Public Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Public's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Public's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.59 and 43.97, respectively. We have considered American Public's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Public stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Public stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8767 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1727 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.593 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0159 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.58 |
Predictive Modules for American Public
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Public Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Public's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Public After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Public at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Public or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Public, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Public Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Public's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Public's historical news coverage. American Public's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 39.78 and 44.16, respectively. We have considered American Public's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Public is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Public Education is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Public Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Public is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Public backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Public, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.48 | 2.19 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
41.78 | 41.97 | 0.45 |
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American Public Hype Timeline
American Public Education is presently traded for 41.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. American is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 41.97 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.45%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.48%. The volatility of related hype on American Public is about 8111.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.79. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 624.56 M. Net Income was 16.11 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 354.92 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Public to cross-verify your projections.American Public Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Public's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Public's future price movements. Getting to know how American Public's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Public may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services | (0.75) | 9 per month | 2.77 | 0.08 | 5.32 | (4.53) | 20.71 | |
| KLC | KinderCare Learning Companies | 0.38 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.25 | (6.18) | 24.00 | |
| BYND | Beyond Meat | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 11.83 | (9.82) | 45.83 | |
| VSTA | Vasta Platform | (0.03) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 1.42 | (1.61) | 11.44 | |
| NUS | Nu Skin Enterprises | 0.35 | 6 per month | 3.35 | (0.01) | 5.35 | (4.16) | 20.63 | |
| QSG | QuantaSing Group Limited | 0.64 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 6.26 | (6.49) | 16.19 | |
| DNUT | Krispy Kreme | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.39 | (5.95) | 20.08 | |
| MGPI | MGP Ingredients | (0.28) | 8 per month | 2.05 | 0.03 | 3.56 | (4.14) | 12.18 | |
| STKL | SunOpta | (0.11) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.09 | (3.77) | 27.96 | |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corp | (0.01) | 7 per month | 2.12 | 0.03 | 2.65 | (3.26) | 12.80 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Public
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Public's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Public's price trends.American Public Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Public stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Public could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Public by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Public Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Public stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Public shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Public stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Public Education entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Public Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Public's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Public's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Variance | 5.22 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.77 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Public
The number of cover stories for American Public depends on current market conditions and American Public's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Public is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Public's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Public Short Properties
American Public's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Public's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Public Education often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Public's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Public's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 131.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Public to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is there potential for Diversified Consumer Services market expansion? Will American introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Public. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about American Public listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.5 | Earnings Share 1.31 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.066 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate American Public Education using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating American Public's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause American Public's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that American Public's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether American Public represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, American Public's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.