Apple Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

APC Stock  EUR 231.50  0.00  0.00%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Apple Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 233.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 202.45. Apple Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Apple stock prices and determine the direction of Apple Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Apple's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of Apple's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Apple's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Apple and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Apple's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Apple Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Apple hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Apple Inc from the perspective of Apple response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Apple Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 233.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 202.45.

Apple after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 231.5  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections.

Apple Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Apple price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Apple using various technical indicators. When you analyze Apple charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Apple price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Apple Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Apple Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 233.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.32, mean absolute percentage error of 18.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 202.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Apple Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Apple's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Apple Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest AppleApple Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Apple Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Apple's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Apple's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 231.98 and 234.32, respectively. We have considered Apple's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
231.50
231.98
Downside
233.15
Expected Value
234.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Apple stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Apple stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.0149
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.3188
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0141
SAESum of the absolute errors202.4483
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Apple Inc historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Apple

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Apple Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
230.33231.50232.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
194.69195.86254.65
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
225.48234.37243.27
Details

Apple After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Apple at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Apple or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Apple, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Apple Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Apple's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Apple's historical news coverage. Apple's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 230.33 and 232.67, respectively. We have considered Apple's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
231.50
230.33
Downside
231.50
After-hype Price
232.67
Upside
Apple is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Apple Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Apple Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Apple is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Apple backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Apple, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
1.17
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
231.50
231.50
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Apple Hype Timeline

Apple Inc is presently traded for 231.50on Berlin Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Apple is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Apple is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 231.50. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.8. Apple Inc last dividend was issued on the 7th of May 2020. The entity had 4:1 split on the 31st of August 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections.

Apple Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Apple's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Apple's future price movements. Getting to know how Apple's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Apple may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Apple

For every potential investor in Apple, whether a beginner or expert, Apple's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Apple Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Apple. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Apple's price trends.

Apple Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Apple stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Apple could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Apple by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Apple Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Apple stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Apple shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Apple stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Apple Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Apple Risk Indicators

The analysis of Apple's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Apple's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting apple stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Apple

The number of cover stories for Apple depends on current market conditions and Apple's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Apple is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Apple's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Apple Short Properties

Apple's future price predictability will typically decrease when Apple's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Apple Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Apple's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Apple's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding15.9 B
Short Long Term Debt21.1 B

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Apple Stock

When determining whether Apple Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Apple's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Apple's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Apple Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Apple's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Apple is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Apple's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.