APPLIED MATERIALS Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AP2 Stock | 327.45 16.40 5.27% |
This page documents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast output for APPLIED MATERIALS as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below. Key metrics including projected price and mean absolute deviation are summarized below. The reference data on this page covers both forecast levels and error statistics.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of APPLIED MATERIALS on the next trading day is expected to be 327.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 446.40.When APPLIED MATERIALS prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any APPLIED MATERIALS trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent APPLIED MATERIALS observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. APPLIED MATERIALS's Double Exponential Smoothing reference values are drawn from available trading data and are presented for informational reference only. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of APPLIED MATERIALS on the next trading day is expected to be 327.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.57 , mean absolute percentage error of 84.82 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 446.40 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict APPLIED Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that APPLIED MATERIALS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest APPLIED MATERIALS | APPLIED MATERIALS Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for APPLIED MATERIALS focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 324.73 on the downside to about 331.17 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of APPLIED MATERIALS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent APPLIED MATERIALS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.2878 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.5661 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0267 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 446.4 |
Other Forecasting Options for APPLIED MATERIALS
MACD analysis of APPLIED tracks the relationship between two exponential moving averages of APPLIED MATERIALS's price. Many APPLIED MATERIALS's traders use Fibonacci levels to set entry and exit targets based on prior price swings. Average True Range measures the typical daily price swing for APPLIED, accounting for gaps. The frequency and magnitude of gaps reveal how much new information is being priced into APPLIED outside regular hours.APPLIED MATERIALS Related Equities
Sizing up APPLIED MATERIALS against these stocks within the Materials space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how APPLIED MATERIALS's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. These checks provide a starting point for deeper study of APPLIED MATERIALS's strengths and weak spots.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
APPLIED MATERIALS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for APPLIED MATERIALS assess how the stock responds to changes in investor sentiment. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit APPLIED MATERIALS positions. Market strength signals help investors time APPLIED MATERIALS positions with greater precision and confidence. These tools add market timing discipline when analyzing APPLIED MATERIALS stock.
APPLIED MATERIALS Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for APPLIED MATERIALS is a critical component of accurate price forecasting. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with APPLIED MATERIALS's allows investors to make better-informed decisions. Understanding APPLIED MATERIALS's risk indicators is a fundamental step in managing investment exposure responsibly. Understanding the risk embedded in APPLIED MATERIALS's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.44 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.11 | |||
| Variance | 9.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for APPLIED MATERIALS
Coverage intensity for APPLIED MATERIALS matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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