Artivion Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AORT Stock  USD 35.26  -0.46  -1.29%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Artivion is derived from the equity's published trading history. The resulting forecast and deviation statistics are presented as reference data for informational context. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes. All values shown are derived from publicly available market data.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Artivion on the next trading day is expected to be 35.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.83.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Artivion forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Artivion observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Artivion reflects Simple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use.
Artivion simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Artivion are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Artivion prices get older.

Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Artivion on the next trading day is expected to be 35.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.82 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.83 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Artivion Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Artivion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Artivion  Artivion Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Artivion's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Market Value
35.26
35.26
Expected Value
37.51
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Artivion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Artivion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.0737
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1938
MADMean absolute deviation0.6138
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0157
SAESum of the absolute errors36.83
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Artivion forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Artivion observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Artivion

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Artivion Stock price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Artivion occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Artivion's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves. A volume spike without a corresponding price move can signal accumulation or distribution ahead of a directional breakout.

Artivion Related Equities

Sizing up Artivion against these stocks within the Health Care space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Market cap and total value checks frame Artivion's size within the competitive field. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks. This type of review is most useful when done often to track how positions shift over time.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Artivion Market Strength Events

Tracking market strength indicators for Artivion provides context for understanding stock momentum dynamics. Tracking these indicators helps identify periods where trading Artivion is likely to be most rewarding. These tools are essential for timing trades in Artivion with a quantitative framework. Market strength indicators for Artivion are most useful when viewed as part of a broader analytical framework.

Artivion Risk Indicators

Properly assessing Artivion's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Artivion's. Analyzing Artivion's risk indicators provides a critical input for investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Artivion's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about hedging strategies.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Artivion

A coverage review of Artivion shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.

Artivion Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Artivion matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding47.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments64.9 M

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