America Movil Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

AMX Stock  CAD 4.37  0.07  1.63%   
America Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength momentum indicator of America Movil's share price is approaching 39. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling America Movil, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 39

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of America Movil's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of America Movil and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from America Movil's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Amex Exploration, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting America Movil's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.95)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.01)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.02)
Wall Street Target Price
6.5
Using America Movil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amex Exploration from the perspective of America Movil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amex Exploration on the next trading day is expected to be 4.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.44.

America Movil after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 4.21  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of America Movil to cross-verify your projections.

America Movil Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine America price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for America using various technical indicators. When you analyze America charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for America Movil - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When America Movil prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in America Movil price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Amex Exploration.

America Movil Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amex Exploration on the next trading day is expected to be 4.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict America Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that America Movil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

America Movil Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest America Movil  America Movil Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

America Movil Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting America Movil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. America Movil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.19 and 8.54, respectively. We have considered America Movil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.37
4.37
Expected Value
8.54
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of America Movil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent America Movil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0324
MADMean absolute deviation0.1406
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0326
SAESum of the absolute errors8.437
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past America Movil observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Amex Exploration observations.

Predictive Modules for America Movil

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amex Exploration. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.214.218.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.214.128.33
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details

America Movil After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of America Movil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in America Movil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of America Movil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

America Movil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting America Movil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on America Movil's historical news coverage. America Movil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.21 and 8.42, respectively. We have considered America Movil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
4.37
4.21
After-hype Price
8.42
Upside
America Movil is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amex Exploration is based on 3 months time horizon.

America Movil Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as America Movil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading America Movil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with America Movil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.75 
4.18
  0.10 
  0.03 
3 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
4.37
4.21
2.09 
3,215  
Notes

America Movil Hype Timeline

Amex Exploration is presently traded for 4.37on TSX Venture Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. America is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 4.21. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -2.09%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.75%. The volatility of related hype on America Movil is about 9646.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.40. About 33.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of America Movil was presently reported as 1.05. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.04. Amex Exploration last dividend was issued on the 23rd of December 2016. The entity had 1:5 split on the 23rd of December 2016. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of America Movil to cross-verify your projections.

America Movil Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to America Movil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict America Movil's future price movements. Getting to know how America Movil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how America Movil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
LGDLiberty Gold Corp 0.02 7 per month 3.28  0.18  8.54 (5.38) 20.50 
SBISerabi Gold PLC 0.21 5 per month 4.40  0.09  5.91 (7.38) 19.64 
SIGSitka Gold Corp(0.05)5 per month 3.11 (0.01) 5.10 (5.15) 13.84 
FDRFlinders Resources Limited 0.17 1 per month 0.00 (0.03) 7.06 (6.22) 16.41 
BYNBanyan Gold Corp 0.02 6 per month 4.20  0.15  9.68 (6.98) 20.95 
GOLDGoldMining 0.01 8 per month 5.00  0.06  8.61 (7.96) 28.06 
RDSRessources Minieres Radisson(0.02)1 per month 4.23  0.04  7.95 (6.67) 22.93 
MMYMonument Mining Limited(0.02)4 per month 4.71  0.08  5.83 (6.30) 26.45 
WRLGWest Red Lake 0.05 3 per month 2.98  0.15  7.69 (4.12) 17.68 

Other Forecasting Options for America Movil

For every potential investor in America, whether a beginner or expert, America Movil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. America Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in America. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying America Movil's price trends.

America Movil Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with America Movil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of America Movil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing America Movil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

America Movil Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how America Movil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading America Movil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying America Movil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amex Exploration entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

America Movil Risk Indicators

The analysis of America Movil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in America Movil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting america stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for America Movil

The number of cover stories for America Movil depends on current market conditions and America Movil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that America Movil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about America Movil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for America Stock Analysis

When running America Movil's price analysis, check to measure America Movil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy America Movil is operating at the current time. Most of America Movil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of America Movil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move America Movil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of America Movil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.