Amana Income Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AMINX Fund | USD 68.25 0.21 0.31% |
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Amana Income Fund. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amana Income Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 67.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.21.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Amana Income observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Amana Income Fund observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Amana Income Fund is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amana Income Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 67.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.36 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.21 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amana Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amana Income's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Amana Income | Amana Income Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Amana Income Fund focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 67.06 on the downside to about 68.79 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amana Income mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amana Income mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0834 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4702 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0066 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.2132 |
Other Forecasting Options for Amana Income
Amana Income's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Amana often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration. Gap analysis of Amana Mutual Fund data examines overnight jumps between Amana Income's closing and opening prices.Amana Income Related Equities
Investors studying Amana Income often look at related stocks within the Large Blend space to gauge pricing and results. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across Amana Income's peer group. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces. Tracking Amana Income's results against these peers over time helps spot rising trends early.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amana Income Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Amana Income mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Amana Income Fund. These indicators can identify periods when trading Amana Income Fund may offer more favorable risk-reward conditions.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 68.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 68.25 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.1 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.21 |
Amana Income Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amana Income's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Amana Income's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure. The analysis of Amana Income's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for managing investment risk.
| Mean Deviation | 0.704 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8646 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Variance | 1.24 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8528 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7476 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.76 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Amana Income
Story coverage around Amana Income Fund often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.