Advanced Micro Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AMD Stock   174.78  0.24  0.14%   
This page documents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast output for Advanced Micro Devices as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below. Key metrics including projected price and mean absolute deviation are summarized below. The reference data on this page covers both forecast levels and error statistics.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 174.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 285.54.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Advanced Micro Devices forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Advanced Micro observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Advanced Micro's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference values are drawn from available trading data and are presented for informational reference only.
Advanced Micro simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Advanced Micro Devices are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Advanced Micro Devices prices get older.

Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 174.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.68 , mean absolute percentage error of 48.73 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 285.54 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advanced Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advanced Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

Forecasting Advanced Micro Devices for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Market Value
174.78
170.99
Downside
174.78
Expected Value
178.57
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advanced Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advanced Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.9968
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1302
MADMean absolute deviation4.681
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0256
SAESum of the absolute errors285.54
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Advanced Micro Devices forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Advanced Micro observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Advanced Micro

MACD analysis of Advanced tracks the relationship between two exponential moving averages of Advanced Micro's price. Many Advanced Micro's traders use Fibonacci levels to set entry and exit targets based on prior price swings. Average True Range measures the typical daily price swing for Advanced, accounting for gaps. The frequency and magnitude of gaps reveal how much new information is being priced into Advanced outside regular hours.

Advanced Micro Related Equities

Sizing up Advanced Micro against these stocks within the Materials space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Advanced Micro's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag Advanced Micro across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps. Peer review is one of the most widely used methods in stock research and portfolio building.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Advanced Micro Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Advanced Micro assess how the stock responds to changes in investor sentiment. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit Advanced Micro Devices positions. Market strength signals help investors time Advanced Micro Devices positions with greater precision and confidence. These tools add market timing discipline when analyzing Advanced Micro stock.

Advanced Micro Risk Indicators

Risk indicator analysis for Advanced Micro is a critical component of accurate price forecasting. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with Advanced Micro's allows investors to make better-informed decisions. Understanding Advanced Micro's risk indicators is a fundamental step in managing investment exposure responsibly. Understanding the risk embedded in Advanced Micro's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Advanced Micro

A coverage review of Advanced Micro Devices shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.

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