Ambow Education Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AMBO Stock | USD 2.79 0.21 7.00% |
Ambow Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Ambow Education's share price is approaching 40. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ambow Education, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ambow Education hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ambow Education Holding from the perspective of Ambow Education response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ambow Education Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 2.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.32. Ambow Education after-hype prediction price | USD 2.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ambow Education to cross-verify your projections. Ambow Education Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ambow price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ambow using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ambow charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ambow Education Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ambow Education Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 2.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ambow Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ambow Education's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ambow Education Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ambow Education | Ambow Education Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ambow Education Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ambow Education's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ambow Education's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.82, respectively. We have considered Ambow Education's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ambow Education stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ambow Education stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0272 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1411 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0394 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.3237 |
Predictive Modules for Ambow Education
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ambow Education Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ambow Education After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ambow Education at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ambow Education or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ambow Education, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ambow Education Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ambow Education's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ambow Education's historical news coverage. Ambow Education's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.14 and 7.86, respectively. We have considered Ambow Education's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ambow Education is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ambow Education Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ambow Education Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ambow Education is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ambow Education backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ambow Education, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 5.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.79 | 2.79 | 0.00 |
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Ambow Education Hype Timeline
Ambow Education Holding is presently traded for 2.79. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Ambow is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.55%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ambow Education is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.79. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.92. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ambow Education Holding had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:10 split on the 20th of February 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ambow Education to cross-verify your projections.Ambow Education Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ambow Education's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ambow Education's future price movements. Getting to know how Ambow Education's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ambow Education may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LXEH | Lixiang Education Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 9.09 | (10.34) | 21.38 | |
| YHC | LQR House | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.54 | (6.67) | 29.41 | |
| SANW | SW Seed Company | 0.00 | 0 per month | 18.23 | 0.01 | 50.00 | (34.90) | 116.87 | |
| RPDL | Rapid Line | 0.00 | 0 per month | 8.77 | 0.09 | 23.53 | (20.00) | 95.83 | |
| KIDZ | Classover Holdings Class | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 7.69 | (13.33) | 35.31 | |
| STKH | Steakholder Foods | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.09 | (10.66) | 30.24 | |
| VAPE | VAPE New | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TKLF | Yoshitsu Co Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.36 | (5.26) | 17.04 | |
| SBEV | Splash Beverage Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 13.64 | (14.61) | 74.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ambow Education
For every potential investor in Ambow, whether a beginner or expert, Ambow Education's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ambow Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ambow. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ambow Education's price trends.Ambow Education Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ambow Education stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ambow Education could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ambow Education by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ambow Education Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ambow Education stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ambow Education shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ambow Education stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ambow Education Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ambow Education Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ambow Education's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ambow Education's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ambow stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.07 | |||
| Variance | 25.66 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ambow Education
The number of cover stories for Ambow Education depends on current market conditions and Ambow Education's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ambow Education is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ambow Education's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ambow Education Short Properties
Ambow Education's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ambow Education's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ambow Education Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ambow Education's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ambow Education's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 142.8 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ambow Education to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ambow Education. If investors know Ambow will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ambow Education listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Ambow Education Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ambow that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ambow Education's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ambow Education's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ambow Education's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ambow Education's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ambow Education's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ambow Education is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ambow Education's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.