Amalgamated Bank Stock Forward View
| AMAL Stock | USD 38.68 0.51 1.34% |
This reference page presents Naive Prediction forecast data for Amalgamated Bank. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amalgamated Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 39.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.98.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Amalgamated Bank. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Amalgamated Bank. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction forecast data for Amalgamated Bank is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Amalgamated Bank Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash for Amalgamated Bank requires analysts to apply different statistical methods to find hidden patterns. This approach detects underlying patterns in Amalgamated Bank's financial data to predict future market behavior.
Cash | First Reported 2016-12-31 | Previous Quarter 115.5 M | Current Value 4.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 196.3 M |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amalgamated Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 39.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.46 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.98 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amalgamated Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amalgamated Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Amalgamated Bank | Amalgamated Bank Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Amalgamated Bank focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 37.06 and upside near 41.33.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amalgamated Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amalgamated Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.333 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5243 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0142 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.9808 |
Other Forecasting Options for Amalgamated Bank
Amalgamated Bank's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Amalgamated often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Amalgamated Bank Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Financials space can help frame Amalgamated Bank's pricing and running costs in context. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Amalgamated Bank's results.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amalgamated Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Amalgamated Bank stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Amalgamated Bank.
Amalgamated Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amalgamated Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Amalgamated Bank's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Variance | 4.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.9 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.90 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Amalgamated Bank
Story coverage around Amalgamated Bank often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Amalgamated Bank Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Amalgamated Bank is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 53.2 M |