Allison Transmission Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ALSN Stock | USD 110.70 -1.49 -1.33% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Allison Transmission is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Allison Transmission Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 111.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.55.When Allison Transmission Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Allison Transmission Holdings trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Allison Transmission observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for Allison Transmission presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Allison Transmission Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 111.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43 , mean absolute percentage error of 3.43 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.55 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allison Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allison Transmission's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
Forecasting Allison Transmission Holdings for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allison Transmission stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allison Transmission stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.148 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4331 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 84.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for Allison Transmission
The distribution of Allison Transmission's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Allison Transmission's chart that simple price charts miss.Allison Transmission Related Equities
Allison Transmission's market space within the Industrials space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Allison Transmission's results. Investors should look for peers that steadily beat or lag Allison Transmission across many periods. Peer review is one of the most widely used methods in stock research and portfolio building.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Allison Transmission Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Allison Transmission give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Allison Transmission Holdings.
Allison Transmission Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Allison Transmission's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Allison Transmission's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Variance | 2.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.98 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Allison Transmission
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Allison Transmission Holdings can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Allison Transmission Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Allison Transmission Holdings can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 85 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.5 B |