Alaska Air Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ALK Stock | USD 38.47 -0.16 -0.41% |
This reference view applies Double Exponential Smoothing to Alaska Air Group's historical closing prices. Alaska Air Group's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data. Alaska Air Group's forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. Mean absolute deviation and related metrics help quantify forecast uncertainty for Alaska Air Group.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alaska Air Group on the next trading day is expected to be 38.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.63.When Alaska Air Group prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Alaska Air Group trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Alaska Air observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for Alaska Air Group are Double Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alaska Air Group on the next trading day is expected to be 38.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.35 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.77 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.63 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alaska Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alaska Air's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alaska Air | Alaska Air Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Alaska Air's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 34.91 on the downside to about 41.39 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alaska Air stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alaska Air stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2029 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3496 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0273 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 79.626 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alaska Air
Volume-weighted price analysis for Alaska Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in Alaska momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing Alaska Air's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in Alaska Stock price action.Alaska Air Related Equities
These related stocks within the Industrials space give benchmarks for judging Alaska Air's results, margins, and growth trend. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Alaska Air's relative financial strength. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets. These checks provide a starting point for deeper study of Alaska Air's strengths and weak spots.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alaska Air Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of Alaska Air stock allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. Monitoring these indicators highlights periods where Alaska Air Group trading conditions shift meaningfully. These metrics are particularly useful when Alaska Air stock shows divergence from broader market trends. Regularly reviewing Alaska Air Group strength signals helps maintain a structured approach to position management.
Alaska Air Risk Indicators
Understanding Alaska Air's risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Alaska Air's investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure. Reviewing Alaska Air's basic risk indicators is essential for managing investment risk effectively. The risk-return trade-off for alaska stock becomes clearer when Alaska Air's risk indicators are properly assessed.
| Mean Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.19 | |||
| Variance | 10.19 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alaska Air
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Alaska Air Group can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Alaska Air Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Alaska Air Group matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 117.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 B |