Alamo Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ALG Stock | USD 163.17 -4.53 -2.70% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Alamo is derived from the equity's published trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alamo Group on the next trading day is expected to be 162.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 189.48.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Alamo observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Alamo Group observations. All forecast values on this page for Alamo Group are Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alamo Group on the next trading day is expected to be 162.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.21 , mean absolute percentage error of 31.88 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 189.48 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alamo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alamo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alamo | Alamo Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Alamo Group focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 159.26 and upside around 164.74 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alamo stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alamo stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.7807 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.2116 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0171 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 189.482 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alamo
For both new and experienced investors in Alamo, the ability to analyze Alamo's price movement is a fundamental investment skill. Price chart noise in Alamo Stock can create false signals and mislead investment decisions.Alamo Related Equities
The following equities are related to Alamo within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Alamo against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alamo Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for Alamo provides context for understanding the momentum dynamics of the stock in real time. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions in Alamo Group for maximum return potential.
Alamo Risk Indicators
Properly assessing Alamo's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with Alamo's allows investors to make better-informed decisions about accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.65 | |||
| Variance | 7.0 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alamo
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Alamo Group can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Alamo Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Alamo Group matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 309.7 M |