ALPINE REALTY Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AIAGX Fund | USD 11.15 -0.08 -0.71% |
This page provides Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Alpine Realty Income, calculated from historical daily prices. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alpine Realty Income on the next trading day is expected to be 11.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.97.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Alpine Realty Income forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent ALPINE REALTY observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. ALPINE REALTY's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alpine Realty Income on the next trading day is expected to be 11.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.97 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ALPINE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ALPINE REALTY's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ALPINE REALTY | ALPINE REALTY Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Alpine Realty Income focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ALPINE REALTY mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ALPINE REALTY mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.3461 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0145 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0662 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0061 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for ALPINE REALTY
The price movement of ALPINE is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. ALPINE Mutual Fund price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.ALPINE REALTY Related Equities
The following equities are related to ALPINE REALTY within the Real Estate space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ALPINE REALTY against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ALPINE REALTY Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to ALPINE REALTY mutual fund help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Alpine Realty Income.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.15 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.15 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.08 |
ALPINE REALTY Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for ALPINE REALTY is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in ALPINE REALTY's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6677 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4836 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Variance | 1.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7654 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2338 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.80 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ALPINE REALTY
Coverage intensity for Alpine Realty Income matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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