American Beacon Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AHTPX Fund | USD 11.02 0.01 0.09% |
American Beacon Ahl's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Beacon Ahl on the next trading day is expected to be 11.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.99.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past American Beacon observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older American Beacon Ahl observations. All Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for American Beacon Ahl are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Beacon Ahl on the next trading day is expected to be 11.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.99 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Beacon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Beacon | American Beacon Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for American Beacon Ahl focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Beacon mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Beacon mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.016 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0664 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0059 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.9868 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Beacon
Bollinger Bands applied to American Mutual Fund price data measure how far American has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to American Beacon's price data.American Beacon Related Equities
These stocks are related to American Beacon within the Tactical Allocation space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Profit comparisons show whether American Beacon earns above or below average returns next to its peers.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Beacon Market Strength Events
For investors tracking American Beacon Ahl, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around American Beacon Ahl positions.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.02 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
American Beacon Risk Indicators
Analyzing American Beacon's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for american mutual fund. By identifying the level of risk embedded in American Beacon's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5814 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8054 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7558 | |||
| Variance | 0.5712 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8635 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6486 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.57 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Beacon
Coverage intensity for American Beacon Ahl matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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